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The BBC have broadcast a recent debate, dubbed “Keynes vs Hayek,” featuring Keynes’ biographer Lord Skidelsky.  For anyone interested in an entry-level discussion of these competing policy approaches, and plenty of binge-drinking/hangover metaphors, it’s worth a listen. * (Keynes, in reference to Hayek.)

Following up on a previous item, Macroeconomic Advisers have updated their analysis in response to the most recent debt ceiling deal.  The results:  no good news, and some serious uncertainty in the probable effects on growth (though not the sort of “uncertainty” the conventional wisdom is persistently telling us we should care about). In 2012, they estimate that the fiscal drag resulting from budget cuts is likely to hover around 0.1 percentage points.  If that strikes you as a minor blip, note that they have not included multiplier effects in their estimates.  The Economic Policy Institute, using standard multipliers, estimate that the ultimate damage in 2012 would amount to a reduction of 0.3 percentage points in GDP, or, if that still doesn’t get your attention, around 323,000 fewer jobs. When adding in the effects of the expiration of the unemployment insurance extensions (528,000 fewer jobs) and the payroll tax cuts (972,000 jobs), EPI suggest that we should expect the economy to shed somewhere on the order of 1.8 million jobs as a result of these policy choices. While the administration, via Tim Geithner op-ed, signaled today that it would like to extend both the unemployment insurance and payroll tax cut measures, as well as to initiate new infrastructure investments, it takes a certain amount of imagination to see how any… Read More

A deal was reached over the weekend by congressional leaders and the President to resolve the debt-ceiling impasse. By that point, it was clear that the possible way out described by John Carney in a blog post to which we linked on Thursday would not be feasible. Nonetheless, the Fed’s ability to supply cash as needed if the deadline were missed had been made clear in official statements reported by the New York Times in Sunday’s early print edition. To wit, in response to concerns expressed by top banking executives, “Mr. Geithner made it clear that the Treasury and the Federal Reserve had taken precautions so that payments for food stamps, military wages, and other federal obligations would not bounce, according to people involved in the call.” An article posted to the Times website Saturday had phrased this point somewhat differently: “Mr. Geithner assured [JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon] that the Treasury and Federal Reserve had taken steps to keep the payment system functioning smoothly, according to individuals briefed on the call.” The phrase “keep the payment system functioning smoothly” is a euphemism known by Fed observers to entail in practice the types of functions described  in the above quote of the print edition. Obviously however, this use of overdrafts could not be continued very long, owing to the will… Read More

Bill Gross has weighed in on the debate about excessive sovereign debt, invoking a study produced by Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart that purports to show a negative relation between debt and economic growth. The “Maginot line” is a debt ratio of 90%, beyond which economic growth slows by 1%. Yet Mr. Gross does not consider the alternative:  that high deficit and debt levels can be caused by plummeting revenue collection in the midst of an economic crisis. Neither Gross nor Rogoff and Reinhart offer any clear argument for their interpretation of the direction of causation, but the evidence this time around for the US is quite clear:  it is the collapse of revenue that accounts for most of the growth of deficits. Unlike the case of Ireland (where the Treasury actually absorbed bank debt), the US bail-out of Wall Street has added virtually nothing to government deficits. Further, like the original study, Gross lumps together countries with sovereign currencies (such as the US and the UK) and countries that abandoned currency sovereignty (the EMU members who adopted the euro, for example) or countries that never had it (those on specie standards). The greatest fear surrounding growth of sovereign debt is that some point is reached where it becomes difficult or impossible to service the interest due. As that point… Read More

The economy grew at an unflattering 1.3% annual rate in the second quarter, while first quarter GDP growth has been revised downwards to a wretched 0.4%. Against the backdrop of these abysmal numbers, the US government appears poised to do its best to make matters worse.  Even if the debt limit negotiations generate an agreement, this is likely to entail a rather substantial anti-stimulus over the next couple of years.  When combined with the expiration of the unemployment insurance extensions and of last year’s payroll tax cut, one can expect the US government to shortly be withdrawing somewhere on the order of a quarter of a trillion dollars from the economy. The forecasting group Macroeconomic Advisers estimates that, as a result of the possible debt limit deals alone, GDP will be roughly 0.1 percentage points lower next year, and up to almost 0.5 points lower in 2013. Again, it is useful to remind ourselves that this is purely self-inflicted.  There is no requirement that budget savings be produced equal to the value of the rise in the debt ceiling—this is entirely a result of political strategy and political demands.  And aside from the debt limit negotiations themselves, there is not much of a case to be made that reducing deficits in the near term in any way solves an emergent… Read More

Many influential mainstream Keynesian economists continue to support high deficits until the nation’s yawning jobs gap is closed. As Laura D’Andrea Tyson observes in a thorough and helpful blog entry posted this morning, this is not a fine-tuning problem requiring a careful weighing of priorities, given the current state of the job market: Like many economists, I believe that the immediate crisis facing the United States economy is the jobs deficit, not the budget deficit. The magnitude of the jobs crisis is clearly illustrated by the jobs gap–currently around 12.3 million jobs. That is how many jobs the economy must add to return to its peak employment level before the 2008–9 recession and to absorb the 125,000 people who enter the labor force each month. At the current pace of recovery, the gap will be not closed until 2020 or later. In other words, we are not even close to full employment; moreover, as many have observed, inflation appears to be extremely low, with few signs that the stimulus measures taken up to now are bringing about an inflationary takeoff. Hence, it is straightforward to see the urgency of increasing job growth relative to worrying about rising prices, at least for the time being. Parenthetically, while macroeconomists rightly devote a great deal of attention to these cyclical issues, there are… Read More

In a recent blog piece at the CNBC website, John Carney offers this interpretation of the federal debt ceiling (see also Felix Salmon’s more recent comment): “The debt ceiling applies to the face amount of obligations issued under Chapter 31 of Title 31 of the U.S. Code—basically, Treasury notes and bills and the other standard kinds of government debt—and the “face amount of obligations whose principal and interest are guaranteed by the United States Government.” But overdrafts on the Federal Reserve wouldn’t be Treasurys and they aren’t explicitly guaranteed by the U.S. government. “They’re more like unilateral gifts from the Fed. “And guess what? The Treasury is allowed to accept gifts that “reduce the public debt.” Since these overdraft gifts from the Fed would allow the government to spend without incurring additional debt, it seems very plausible to argue that this kind of extension of U.S. credit would be permitted under the debt ceiling.” In normal times, when the federal government has not reached a Congressionally imposed ceiling on its debt issuance, the Fed would indeed honor all checks issued by the U.S. Treasury Department, whether or not Treasury securities had previously been issued in sufficient amounts to “cover” the checks.  Carney may indeed be right that the debt limit law might permit this to continue after the debt limit… Read More

With all the recent coverage of the federal government’s debt-limit impasse, it has been some time since the private sector’s financial picture has received much attention in the popular press. Nonetheless, there seems to be little news, as the most recent flow-of-funds data release from the Fed depicts a continuation of trends that have held for at least the past two years or so. Specifically, for the business sector, the figure below shows declining ratios of debt to GDP and increasing ratios of cash-like assets to GDP. (You may need to click on the image to make it large enough.) (Liquid assets include checking and savings accounts at banks, Treasury securities, and currency, all of which can be useful in avoiding missed payments, etc., when financial stresses arise. Also, assets and debts are of course measured in terms of dollars, rather than numbers of bonds, shares, etc. In all of the financial ratios discussed in this post, GDP is expressed in terms of seasonally adjusted output per year, though the data are for individual quarters.) In the next figure, shown below, we can see that the personal sector (households, small businesses, and nonprofit organizations) has experienced increasing ratios of securities holdings to GDP in recent quarters, along with falling ratios of liquid assets to GDP. Moreover, as a percentage of… Read More

(Click figure to enlarge.) Could the government loan the money to itself? The federal government is expected reach its debt limit of $14.29 trillion early next month. Normally, the government more or less indirectly sells a large amount of Treasury securities to the Fed, which is technically a private entity, separate from the familiar government run by the President, Congress, and the Supreme Court. This amount has been increasing rapidly, as shown by the red line in the figure above. As the figure suggests, quantitative easing II, or QEII, which officially ended last month, represents only the most recent version of this sort of open-market policy initiative, though it was highly unusual in that it involved very large purchases of Treasury bonds. Hence, even when the government finds that it has to borrow money to pay for its expenditures, it need not borrow from domestic or foreign private investors, or even foreign central banks or the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Instead, it can essentially turn to itself, borrowing from what is close to a government agency, charged with acting in the public interest. Nonetheless, unfortunately, official Treasury Department bond auctions will presumably cease if and when the federal borrowing limit is reached, rendering Fed purchases largely irrelevant to the resolution of Washington’s debt-limit predicament. Hence, the question arises: if the… Read More

(Click figure to enlarge it.) Some “gold bugs” advocate a return to the gold standard, which the United States officially abandoned in the early 1970s.  The annual data in the chart above show that the price of gold has risen sharply in both euros and yen since 1999. Meanwhile, the dollar itself has fallen against both of the currencies, as shown by the lines near the bottom of the chart. Easy monetary policy has played a role in this drop. But a weakening currency has been one factor behind the recent increase in U.S. exports. The latter grew more than imports in percentage terms over the period shown in the figure. But nonetheless, both imports and exports grew by over 40 percent. It would have been difficult to increase exports at all with U.S. goods and services priced in a surging gold-backed currency. It goes without saying that the price of gold could possibly fall rather than rise in coming years. But dealing with a commodity money whose value can abruptly change in ways that harm the economy is always a severe drawback of a currency backed by gold. Of course, if the United States had adopted a gold-backed currency in 1999, U.S. wages, prices, etc. would likely have behaved much differently than they did. Hence, one cannot be sure… Read More

In a New York Times blog, Nancy Folbre recently discussed the alarming disconnect between economic growth and job creation in the United States. While the economy has been growing since the Great Recession’s end in 2009, the employment rate remains stuck at its December 2009 level of 58 percent. This percentage had reached 65 percent during the boom leading up to the 2001 recession—a level not seen since then. The slow recoveries of the job market after the last two recessions have fostered a concern among many that the link between economic growth and job creation has been severed, a phenomenon that might be called the American Output-Jobs Disconnect. Chart 1 at the top of this post illustrates this turning point in the employment rate (employed persons divided by population). The blue line shows the employment rate for males plunging from 71.9 percent in 2000 to 63.7 in 2010, while the red line depicts the rate for females falling from 57.5 percent to 53.6 percent during the same 11-year interval. Reading an interesting proposal from the Center on American Progress (CAP) and the Hamilton Project to reform the Social Security disability program, also known as SSDI, I noticed this chart, which seemed relevant to the same topic. Chart 2 above shows that among men aged 40 to 59, employment rates… Read More

Many Americans interested in economics will recall David Stockman as the controversial White House budget director who swam against a tide of increasing deficits during Ronald Reagan’s administration in the first half of the 1980s. Ultimately, while Reagan supported many high-profile cuts to social benefits and regulatory budgets, he vastly increased military spending and cut taxes drastically, leading to deficits that disappointed fiscal conservatives. Stockman has an op-ed article in yesterday’s New York Times blasting what he sees as weak efforts by the president and congressional Republicans to come up with long-term plans to cut deficits. He disagrees with the Ryan plan’s focus on cuts to programs that help the poor and Obama’s emphasis on ensuring that the rich pay their fair share.  In Stockman’s mind, these approaches to budget cuts leave the federal government’s main fiscal problems unaddressed but go down well politically. One should take note that while Stockman’s alarms of more than 25 years ago went largely unheeded, no serious U.S. fiscal crisis materialized, though deficits reached nearly 6 percent of GDP in 1983. On the other hand, unemployment touched double-digit levels early in Reagan’s tenure, making high deficits nearly inevitable and certainly justifiable from a policy perspective. Moreover, numerous other serious problems arose largely as a result of Reagan’s economic policies, including his attack on the… Read More