Prospects and Challenges for the US Economy

Related publications

• Policy Notes No.1 19 March 2020

  When Two Minskyan Processes Meet a Large Shock

  Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  The spread of the new coronavirus (COVID-19) is a major shock for the US and global economies. Research Scholar Michalis Nikiforos explains that we cannot fully understand the economic implications of the pandemic without reference to two Minskyan processes at play in the US economy: the growing divergence of stock market prices from output prices, and the increasing fragility in corporate balance sheets.

  The pandemic did not arrive in the context of an otherwise healthy US economy—the demand and supply dimensions of the shock have aggravated an inevitable adjustment process. Using a Minskyan framework, we can understand how the current economic weakness can be perpetuated through feedback effects between flows of demand and supply and their balance sheet impacts.

  Download Policy Note 2020/1 PDF (306.68 KB)
• One Pager No.61 10 March 2020

  A Global Slowdown Will Test US Corporate Fragility

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Gennaro Zezza and Michalis Nikiforos
  Abstract

  The rapidly growing uncertainty about the potential global fallout from an emerging pandemic is occurring against a background in which there is evidence US corporate sector balance sheets are significantly overstretched, exhibiting a degree of fragility that, according to some measures, is unmatched in the postwar historical record. The US economy is vulnerable to a shock that could trigger a cascade of falling asset prices and private sector deleveraging, with severe consequences for both the real and financial sides of the economy.

  Download One-Pager No. 61 PDF (118.75 KB)
• Research Project Report 30 November 2011

  Direct Job Creation for Turbulent Times in Greece

  Rania Antonopoulos, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou and Taun Toay
  Abstract

  Countries in crisis round the world face the daunting task of dealing with abrupt increases in unemployment and associated deepening poverty. Greece, in the face of her sovereign debt crisis, has been hit the hardest. Remediating employment policies, including workweek reductions and employment subsidies, abound but have failed to answer the call satisfactorily. Direct public-service job creation, instead, enables communities to mitigate risks and vulnerabilities that rise especially in turbulent times by actively transforming their own economic and social environment.

  With underwriting from the Labour Institute of the Greek General Confederation of Workers, the Levy Economics Institute was instrumental in the design and implementation of a social works program of direct job creation throughout Greece. Two-year projects, funded from European Structural Funds, have begun.

  This report traces the economic trends preceding and surrounding the economic crisis in Greece, with particular emphasis on recent labor market trends and emerging gaps in social safety net coverage. While its primary focus is identifying the needs in Greece, broader lessons for direct job creation are highlighted, and could be applied to countries entertaining targeted employment creation as a means to alleviate social strains during crisis periods.

  Download Research Project Report, November 30, 2011 PDF (18.23 MB)
• Research Project Report No.34 02 January 2008

  Joint Project of UNDP and Levy Institute on Public Employment

  Rania Antonopoulos and Kijong Kim
  Abstract

  Documents relating to the South Africa and India case studies are available below.

  SOUTH AFRICA	INDIA
  Policy Brief Full Report Appendix A. SAM–SA Technical Report Appendix B. Statistical Analysis Appendix C. Job Identification Tables Appendix D. SAM Reformulation	Policy Brief Full Report Appendix A. SAM-Nana Kotda Village Appendix B. A Note on the Village Sam Appendix C. A Summary Table on Unpaid Work and Its Implications for Public Works Programmes
  Annotated Bibliography