Which Deficit?

For some time economists have acknowledged that reported budgetary data do not necessarily reflect actual economic activity. Agreement has not been reached, however, on how budget figures should be adjusted to reflect such activity accurately. In this working paper, Resident Scholar Neil H. Buchanan examines 13 alternative measures of the budget deficit in order to determine which, if any, are theoretically or statistically sounder than existing measures. He evaluates them in terms of their theoretical value, that is, their ability to capture benefits (such as higher levels of employment [subject to NAIRU constraints], higher rates of growth, and higher levels of private investment), and costs (higher rates of inflation and lower levels of private investment, consumption, and net exports) to the economy. He also tests whether the new definitions provide empirically more robust estimates than existing measures.