A conference organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College with support from the Ford Foundation

The 2015 Minsky Conference addressed, among other issues, the design, flaws, and current status of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, including implementation of the operating procedures necessary to curtail systemic risk and prevent future crises; the insistence on fiscal austerity exemplified by the recent pronouncements of the new Congress; the sustainability of the US economic recovery; monetary policy revisions and central bank independence; the deflationary pressures associated with the ongoing eurozone debt crisis and their implications for the global economy; strategies for promoting an inclusive economy and a more equitable income distribution; and regulatory challenges for emerging market economies. The proceedings include the conference program, transcripts of keynote speakers’ remarks, synopses of the panel sessions, and biographies of the participants.

This issue includes the two most recent strategic analyses, for Greece and the United States. The Levy Institute Macro Modeling Team argues that Greece cannot return to economic growth under austerity. The strategic analysis of the US economy follows, and shows that economic growth could easily be undermined by such things as a rising dollar, fiscal austerity, and deepening income inequality. A policy note offers arguments for a pragmatic debt reduction and reconstruction plan for Greece following the historical example of the Marshall Plan in Germany. Two policy notes take up the issue of inequality in the United States. The first examines the distribution of income in the postwar period and the second examines trends in real wages by demographic characteristics. Drawing on the work of Distinguished Scholar Wynne Godley, a nonbehavioral theory of savings is proposed to explain recent developments in the US economy and the challenges it faces going forward. A discussion of the lack of capital development in the increasingly financialized economies of the United States and the UK provides prescriptions for sustainable, inclusive growth.

Turning to the ongoing crisis in Europe, this issue offers a perspective on Germany’s insistence on austerity as a strategy to advance political integration. A new paper analyzes the impact of a euro exit on trade, growth, employment, and wages in light of the historical experience of currency devaluations. And a Euro Treasury, as a means to repair a basic flaw in the euro and support growth, is proposed. The issue also includes several discussions of clearing unions using local currencies to address deficiencies in the current financial system for emerging economies. Further examining the experience in the emerging BRICs economies, John Maynard Keynes’s observations on the relationship between short- and long-term interest rates is confirmed in an analysis of India’s government bond yields. Wage inequality trends in Bolivia are also analyzed in a working paper.

Contributing to our historical understanding of the origins of money, a new paper explores the historical development of class society and money in the ancient societies of Greece and Egypt. The inclusion of unpaid forms of work currently excluded from satellite accounts is reviewed and found to be an obstacle to accurate analysis and sound policy development. The issue concludes with a study that offers both a methodological contribution and substantive guidance for policies and programs aimed at improving the health of children and families.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

Strategic Analysis

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, and GENNARO ZEZZA, Greece: Conditions and Strategies for Economic Recovery
• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, GREG HANNSGEN, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, and GENNARO ZEZZA, Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, and Maldistribution Will Derail the US Economy

• SUNANDA SEN, The BRICS Initiatives in the Current Global Conjuncture: An Assessment in the Context of the IMF Rulings for Greece
• PAVLINA R. TCHERNEVA, When a Rising Tide Sinks Most Boats: Trends in US Income Inequality
• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, and GENNARO ZEZZA, The Greek Public Debt Problem
• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, A Nonbehavioral Theory of Saving
• JÖRG BIBOW, Making the Euro Viable: The Euro Treasury Plan
• RICCARDO REALFONZO and ANGELANTONIO VISCIONE, The Effects of a Euro Exit on Growth, Employment, and Wages

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• JAN KREGEL, Emerging Market Economies and the Reform of the International Financial Architecture: Back to the Future; Emerging Markets and the International Financial Architecture: A Blueprint for Reform
• JAN KREGEL, Europe at the Crossroads: Financial Fragility and the Survival of the Single Currency
• GREG HANNSGEN and TAI YOUNG-TAFT, Inside Money in a Kaldor-Kalecki-Steindl Fiscal Policy Model: The Unit of Account, Inflation, Leverage, and Financial Fragility
• MARIANA MAZZUCATO and L. RANDALL WRAY, Financing the Capital Development of the Economy: A Keynes-Schumpeter-Minsky Synthesis
• TANWEER AKRAM and ANUPAM DAS, Does Keynesian Theory Explain Indian Government Bond Yields?
• ALLA SEMENOVA and L. RANDALL WRAY, The Rise of Money and Class Society: The Contributions of John F. Henry

Program: The Distribution of Income and Wealth

• FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, A Decade of Declining Wages: From Bad to Worse
• GUSTAVO CANAVIRE-BACARREZA and FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, On the Determinants of Changes in Wage Inequality in Bolivia

Program: Economic Policy in the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• TAI YOUNG-TAFT, Marx’s Theory of Money and 21st-century Macrodynamics
• TAMAR KHITARISHVILI, FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, and KIJONG KIM, Direct Estimates of Food and Eating Production Function Parameters for 2004–12 Using an ATUS/CE Synthetic Dataset

INSTITUTE NEWS

• New Scholars
• Levy MS Faculty Appointments

Upcoming Event

• Gender and Macroeconomics Conference

Save the Dates

• 25th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference
• The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars

A conference coorganized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College and Economia Civile with support from the Ford Foundation, the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, and Marinopoulos AE

Athens, Greece
November 21–22, 2014

This conference was organized as part of the Levy Institute’s international research agenda and in conjunction with the Ford Foundation Project on Financial Instability, which draws on Hyman Minsky’s extensive work on the structure of financial systems to ensure stability, and on the role of government in achieving a growing and equitable economy.

Among the key topics addressed: systemic instability in the eurozone; proposals for banking union; regulation and supervision of financial institutions; monetary, fiscal, and trade policy in Europe, and the spillover effects for the US and global economies; the impact of austerity policies on US and European markets; and the sustainability of government deficits and debt.

Organized by the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College with support from the Ford Foundation

The 2015 Minsky Conference addressed, among other issues, the design, flaws, and current status of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, including implementation of the operating procedures necessary to curtail systemic risk and prevent future crises; the insistence on fiscal austerity exemplified by the recent pronouncements of the new Congress; the sustainability of the US economic recovery; monetary policy revisions and central bank independence; the deflationary pressures associated with the ongoing eurozone debt crisis and their implications for the global economy; strategies for promoting an inclusive economy and a more equitable income distribution; and regulatory challenges for emerging market economies.

This issue of the Summary opens with the latest strategic analysis of the Greek economy using the Levy Institute Model for Greece. The authors find that despite some modest improvements in the country’s economy, continued austerity will not lead to growth. They recommend an end to austerity, call for debt relief, and propose direct intervention in the labor market to spur growth. The strategic analysis is followed by a proposal to resolve the euro-area sovereign debt overhang. Two policy briefs take up current issues surrounding the policies of the Federal Reserve, while a working paper reviews lessons learned from the exercise of monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India. A paper on the impact of the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the Fed’s subsequent extraordinary actions is also included. Several papers examine the nature and role of state investment banks in creating and shaping the economy. A number of authors contribute papers that apply the work of Distinguished Scholar Hyman P. Minsky to such questions as policymaking in emerging economies, endogenous money, prudent banking practices, and the socialization of investment. This issue also includes a discussion of the quality of the statistical match used in the creation of the Levy Institute’s integrated inequality assessment model. And, finally, a paper on the evolution of rising inequality, as measured by the Gini index, in the post–World War II period reveals two distinct patterns in income inequality.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

Strategic Analysis

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, GENNARO ZEZZA, Is Greece Heading For a Recovery?

• DIMITRIS P. SOTIROPOULOS, JOHN MILIOS, and SPYROS LAPATSIORAS, An Outline of a Progressive Resolution to the Euro-area Sovereign Debt Overhang: How a Five-year Suspension of the Debt Burden Could Overthrow Austerity

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• JAN KREGEL, Why Raising Rates May Speed the Recovery
• JAN KREGEL, Liquidity Preference and the Entry and Exit to ZIRP and QE
• SRINIVAS YANAMANDRA, Minsky, Monetary Policy, and Mint Street: Challenges for the Art of Monetary Policymaking in Emerging Economies
• L. RANDALL WRAY, Outside Money: The Advantages of Owning the Magic Porridge Pot
• RICCARDO BELLOFIORE, The Socialization of Investment, from Keynes to Minsky and Beyond
• FELIPE REZENDE, Why Does Brazil’s Banking Sector Need Public Banks? What Should BNDES Do?
• L. RANDALL WRAY, Minsky on Banking: Early Work on Endogenous Money and the Prudent Banker
• SUNANDA SEN and ZICO DASGUPTA, Financialization and Corporate Investments: The Indian Case
• YEVA NERSISYAN, The Repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act and the Federal Reserve’s Extraordinary Intervention during the Global Financial Crisis
• MARIANA MAZZUCATO and CAETANO C. R. PENNA, Beyond Market Failures: The Market Creating and Shaping Roles of State Investment Banks

Program: The Distribution of Income and Wealth

• MARKUS P. A. SCHNEIDER and DANIELE TAVANI, Tale of Two Ginis in the United States, 1921–2012
• FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, Quality of Match for Statistical Matches Using the Consumer Expenditure Survey 2011 and Annual Social Economic Supplement 2011

Program: Economic Policy in the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• GIOVANNA VERTOVA, The State and National Systems of Innovation: A Sympathetic Critique
• MARIANA MAZZUCATO, Building the Entrepreneurial State: A New Framework for Envisioning and Evaluating a Mission-oriented Public Sector

INSTITUTE NEWS

• Levy Scholar Appointed Greek Deputy Labor Minister
• Levy Research Associate Appointed to Senate Budget Committee

New Books in the Levy Institute Book Series

• Economic Development and Financial Instability: Selected Essays, by Jan Kregel
• Contributions to Economic Theory, Policy, Development and Finance: Essays in Honor of Jan A. Kregel, edited by Dimitri B. Papadimitriou

Upcoming Events

• 24th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference
• The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars
• Recent Levy Institute Publications

The Winter 2015 Summary opens with the latest strategic analysis of the Greek economy using the Levy Institute Model for Greece. The authors find that despite some modest improvements in the Greek economy, continued reliance on market forces and the troika’s policy of austerity will not adequately increase output or employment in the medium term. Instead, Greece requires a program of public investment and job creation; the details of such a program are offered in a policy brief. This issue also includes a report calling for the creation of a co-operative banking system to spur rural investment and support urban entrepreneurship in Greece, as well as policy proposals addressing issues that continue to impede the eurozone, including the need for a single financial market, approaches to manage imbalances in the euro area, a proposal for a Euro Treasury, and a road map for a bond backed by the European Central Bank. Turning to Asia, the issue presents new work on Japanese bond yields, Indian macroeconomic policies, the impact of an expanded child-care entitlement in South Korea, and the determinants of Indian interest rates. The demographic relationships underlying social welfare policy preferences in Israel are also explored in a new paper. Theoretical contributions included in this issue address such topics as endogenous money and the natural rate of interest in Post Keynesian economics, distribution-led growth in the long run, and two papers examining issues in the measurement of subjective well-being and the linkages between work and life satisfaction. Finally, a new paper examines the impact of the Great Recession on the time-use patterns of parents in the United States.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

Strategic Analysis

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, GENNARO ZEZZA, Will Tourism Save Greece?

• MARIO TONVERONACHI, The ECB and the Single European Financial Market: A Proposal to Repair Half of a Flawed Design
• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU and TAUN TOAY, Co-operative Banking in Greece: A Proposal for Rural Reinvestment and Urban Entrepreneurship
• ANDREA TERZI, When Good Intentions Pave the Road to Hell: Monetization Fears and Europe’s Narrowing Options
• SUNANDA SEN and ZICO DASGUPTA, Economic Policy in India: For Economic Stimulus, or for Austerity and Volatility?
• ECKHARD HEIN and DANIEL DETZER, Economic Policy in India: Coping with Imbalances in the Euro Area: Policy Alternatives Addressing Divergences and Disparities between Member Countries

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• JÖRG BIBOW, The Euro Treasury Plan
• PHILIP PILKINGTON, Endogenous Money and the Natural Rate of Interest: The Reemergence of Liquidity Preference and Animal Spirits in the Post-Keynesian Theory of Capital Markets
• TANWEER AKRAM and ANUPAM DAS, The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds’ Low Nominal Yields

Program: The Distribution of Income and Wealth

• AJIT ZACHARIAS, THOMAS MASTERSON, and KIJONG KIM, Can Child-care Subsidies Reduce Poverty? Assessing the Korean Experience Using the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Income Poverty
• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, Distribution-led Growth in the Long Run

Program: Gender Equality and the Economy

• EBRU KONGAR and GÜNSELI BERIK, Time Use of Parents in the United States: What Difference Did the Great Recession Make?

Program: Employment Policy and Labor Markets

• RANIA ANTONOPOULOS, SOFIA ADAM, KIJONG KIM, THOMAS MASTERSON, and DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, After Austerity: Measuring the Impact of a Job Guarantee Policy for Greece

Program: Immigration, Ethnicity, and Social Structure

• YUVAL ELMELECH, Public Preferences for Redistributive Policies in Israel

Program: Economic Policy in the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• MARTIN BINDER and ALEX COAD, Heterogeneity in the Relationship between Unemployment and Subjective Well-Being: A Quantile Approach
• ALEX COAD and MARTIN BINDER, Causal Linkages between Work and Life Satisfaction and Their Determinants in a Structural VAR Approach
• HRISHIKESH VINOD, LEKHA S. CHAKRABORTY, and HONEY KARUN, If Deficits Are Not the Culprit, What Determines Indian Interest Rates? An Evaluation Using the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap Method

INSTITUTE NEWS

• Second Annual Athens Conference

Upcoming Event

• The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar

Save the Date

• 24th Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars
• Recent Levy Institute Publications

Capital.gr, 21 Νοεμβρίου 2014. Με επιφύλαξη παντός δικαιώματος.

«Οι προοπτικές για τη χώρα δεν θα είναι πολύ ενθαρρυντικές». Αυτό δήλωσε ο Πρόεδρος του Levy Economics Institute, Δημήτρης Παπαδημητρίου ανοίγοντας το ετήσιο συνέδριο του εν λόγω ινστιτούτου με θέμα «Η Ευρώπη σε σταυροδρόμι: μια Ένωση λιτότητας ή αναπτυξιακής σύγκλισης» (Αθήνα, 21-22 Νοεμβρίου).

Διαβάστε περισσότερα κάνοντας ΚΛΙΚ ΕΔΩ: http://www.capital.gr/news.asp?id=2163039

Τα ερωτήματα, πολλά και απολύτως επίκαιρα. Οι ομιλητές, όλοι τους εξέχοντες και «μέσα στα πράγματα». Ο τόπος, κατάλληλος. Και η χρονική συγκυρία, «ιδανική». Μπορεί η ευρωπαϊκή περιφέρεια να επιστρέψει στην ανάπτυξη; Μπορεί η Ευρώπη να εξελιχθεί από ένωση λιτότητας σε ένωση αναπτυξιακής σύγκλισης; Μπορεί η ανάκαμψη να θωρακιστεί απέναντι στις απειλές; Μπορεί η Ελλάδα να βγει από την κρίση και πώς;

Διαβάστε περισσότερα κάνοντας ΚΛΙΚ ΕΔΩ: http://www.ethnos.gr/article.asp?catid=22770&subid=2&pubid=64097567

A conference organized by the Levy Economics Institute with support from the Ford Foundation

In the context of a sluggish economic recovery and global uncertainty, with growth and employment well below normal levels, the 2014 Minsky Conference addressed both financial reform and prosperity, drawing from Hyman Minsky’s work on financial instability and his proposal for achieving full employment. Panels focused on the design of a new, more robust, and stable financial architecture; fiscal austerity and the sustainability of the US and European economic recovery; central bank independence and financial reform; the larger implications of the eurozone debt crisis for the global economic system; the impact of the return to more traditional US monetary policy on emerging markets and developing economies; improving governance of the social safety net; the institutional shape of the future financial system; strategies for promoting an inclusive economy and more equitable income distribution; and regulatory challenges for emerging-market economies. The proceedings include the conference program, transcripts of keynote speakers’ remarks, synopses of the panel sessions, and biographies of the participants.

The latest issue of the Summary opens with a Strategic Analysis of the US economy in which the authors identify an inequality in the distribution of income as an unsustainable process that hampers economic recovery. A related policy note discusses the historical development and lack of progress in wages in the United States, and a working paper takes up the question of unpaid work time in relation to poverty status. The Fall Summary also includes several publications on issues that continue to confront central banks; notably, shadow banking. The nature of money and the evolution of central banks are discussed in several working papers, as is the work of Distinguished Scholar Hyman P. Minsky as a guide to understanding the sources of and responses to financial instability. Several papers discuss findings on time and income poverty in countries such as Turkey and South Korea. This issue closes with a series of papers exploring the theoretical and empirical bases of the labor and profit shares.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

Strategic Analysis

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, GENNARO ZEZZA, GREG HANNSGEN, Is Rising Inequality a Hindrance to the US Economic Recovery?

• C. J. POLYCHRONIOU, Dead Economic Dogmas Trump Recovery: The Continuing Crisis in the Eurozone Periphery
• PHILIP PILKINGTON, A Sustainable Monetary Framework for an Independent Scotland
• ALBERTO BOTTA, Structural Asymmetries at the Roots of the Eurozone Crisis: What’s New for Industrial Policy in the EU?
• ELOY FISHER and JAVIER LÓPEZ BERNARDO, The Political Economy of Shadow Banking: Debt, Finance, and Distributive Politics under a Kalecki-Goodwin-Minsky SFC Framework

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• JAN KREGEL, Minsky and Dynamic Macroprudential Regulation
• L. RANDALL WRAY, Central Bank Independence: Myth and Misunderstanding
• L. RANDALL WRAY, From the State Theory of Money to Modern Money Theory: An Alternative to Economic Orthodoxy
• EUGENIO CAVERZASI, Minsky and the Subprime Mortgage Crisis: The Financial Instability Hypothesis in the Era of Financialization
• ÉRIC TYMOIGNE, Monetary Mechanics: A Financial View
• THORVALD GRUNG MOE, Shadow Banking: Policy Challenges for Central Banks

Program: The Distribution of Income and Wealth

• AJIT ZACHARIAS, THOMAS MASTERSON, and EMEL MEMIÅž, How Poor Is Turkey? And What Can Be Done About It?
• FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA and JULIE L. HOTCHKISS, A Decade of Flat Wages?
• THOMAS MASTERSON, Quality of Statistical Match and Employment Simulations Used in the Estimation of the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Income Poverty (LIMTIP) for South Korea, 2009
• FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, Quality of Match for Statistical Matches Using the American Time Use Survey 2010, the Survey of Consumer Finances 2010, and the Annual Social and Economic Supplement 2011

Program: Gender Equality and the Economy

• LEKHA S. CHAKRABORTY, Gender-responsive Budgeting as Fiscal Innovation: Evidence from India on “Processes”
• TAMAR KHITARISHVILI and KIJONG KIM, The Great Recession and Unpaid Work Time in the United States: Does Poverty Matter?

Program: Economic Policy in the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• FABRIZIO PATRIARCA and CLAUDIO SARDONI, Growth with Unused Capacity and Endogenous Depreciation
• MARTIN BINDER and LEONHARD K. LADES, Autonomy-enhancing Paternalism
• OLIVIER GIOVANNONI, What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share? Part I: Theories
• OLIVIER GIOVANNONI, What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share? Part II: Empirical Studies
• OLIVIER GIOVANNONI, What Do We Know About the Labor Share and the Profit Share? Part III: Measures and Structural Factors
• OLIVIER GIOVANNONI, Income Distribution Macroeconomics

INSTITUTE NEWS

• MS Program Welcomes New Graduate Students
• New Research Scholar
• New Research Associate

Upcoming Event: Conference

• Europe at the Crossroads: A Union of Austerity or Growth Convergence? 

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars
• Recent Levy Institute Publications

Among the key topics addressed: the challenges to global growth and employment posed by the continuing eurozone debt crisis; the impact of austerity on output and employment; the ramifications of the credit crunch for economic and financial markets; the larger implications of government deficits and debt crises for US and European economic policies; and central bank independence and financial reform.

This conference was organized as part of the Levy Institute’s global research agenda and in conjunction with the Ford Foundation Project on Financial Instability, which draws on Hyman Minsky’s extensive work on the structure of financial governance and the role of the state. Among the key topics addressed: designing a financial structure to promote investment in emerging markets; the challenges to global growth posed by continuing austerity measures; the impact of the credit crunch on economic and financial markets; and the larger effects of tight fiscal policy as it relates to the United States, the eurozone, and the BRIC countries.

The Spring 2014 Summary begins with a strategic analysis of the Greek economy using the Levy Institute Model for Greece. The authors analyze several policy scenarios and propose a parallel financial system to support expansionary fiscal policy and a job guarantee program, with Greece remaining in the euro. Related policy notes offer an innovative proposal for a tax-backed bond for Europe, as well as a critical assessment of the “success” of austerity policy in Greece. This issue also contains a policy brief that explores the emergence of vulgarized “stimulus” policies too often confused with Keynesian policy, policy notes assessing relevant lessons from past debt ceiling debates and the social enterprise approach to a US job guarantee, and working papers that examine China’s fiscal and monetary policy options, Modern Money Theory, Federal Reserve governance, time use and gender budgeting, employment effects of North-South trade, Keynes’s full employment proposal, computational challenges in estimating models with more than one fixed effect, productivity effects and profitability impacts of unions in Latin America, and, finally, an analysis of the rational expectations hypothesis in light of Karl Popper’s contribution.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

Strategic Analysis

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, and GENNARO ZEZZA, Prospects and Policies for the Greek Economy

• PHILIP PILKINGTON, The Continued Relevance of Tax-backed Bonds in a Post-OMT
• C. J. POLYCHRONIOU, The Myth of the Greek Economic “Success Story

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• AMIT BHADURI, What Remains of the Theory of Demand Management in a Globalizing World
• JAN KREGEL, Wright Patman’s Proposal to Fund Government Debt at Zero Interest Rates: Lessons for the Current Debate on the US Debt
• L. RANDALL WRAY and XINHUA LIU, Options for China in a Dollar Standard World: A Sovereign Currency
• BERNARD SHULL, Financial Crisis Resolution and Federal Reserve Governance: Economic Thought and Political
• ÉRIC TYMOIGNE , Modern Money Theory and Interrelations between the Treasury and the Central Bank: The Case of the United States

Program: Gender Equality and the Economy

• LEKHA S. CHAKRABORTY, Integrating Time in Public Policy: Empirical Description of Gender-specific Outcomes and Budgeting
• BURÇA KIZILIRMAK, EMEL MEMIÅž, ÅžIRIN SARAÇOÄžLU, and EBRU VOYVODA, Changes in Global Trade Patterns and Women’s Employment in Manufacturing: An Analysis over the Period of Asianization and Deindustrialization

Program: Employment Policy and Labor Markets

• PAVLINA R. TCHERNEVA, The Social Enterprise Model for a Job Guarantee in the United States
• FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, Unions and Economic Performance in Developing Countries: Case Studies from Latin America
• PAVLINA R. TCHERNEVA, Full Employment: The Road Not Taken

Program: Economic Policy for the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• PHILIP PILKINGTON, A Stock-flow Approach to a General Theory of Pricing
• FERNANDO RIOS-AVILA, Feasible Estimation of Linear Models with N-fixed Effects
• IVÁN H. AYALA and ALFONSO PALACIO-VERA, The Rational Expectations Hypothesis: An Assessment from Popper’s Philosophy

INSTITUTE NEWS

• MS Program Welcomes New Graduate Students
• New Research Associate

Upcoming Events

• 23rd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference
• The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars
• Recent Levy Institute Publications

The Winter 2014 Summary begins with a strategic analysis of the US economy that calls for targeted spending on high-tech R & D manufacturing to buttress the fragile economic recovery. A related policy note, published during the US government shutdown, explores the consequences of not raising the debt ceiling for the US economy. Other topics covered in this issue include the need for more aggressive action by the Federal Reserve to strengthen recovery in the real economy, a detailed response to the critics of Modern Money Theory, and a critical assessment of fiscal fine-tuning. Turning to the eurozone, several new publications address the ongoing crisis, the need for a “Euro Treasury,” the German debt brake, the origins and nature of the Greek crisis, and an analysis of the labor market in Turkey. The issue closes with theoretical explorations of the business cycle, profit- and wage-led growth models, the role of norms and ideals in market interactions, and the process of credit creation by private banks. The Summary also includes overviews of recent Levy Institute conferences in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and Athens, Greece. (The conference audio and video are available in the Events section of our website.)

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

Strategic Analysis

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, GREG HANNSGEN, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, and GENNARO ZEZZA, Rescuing the Recovery: Prospects and Policies for the United States

Conference Proceedings

• The Eurozone Crisis, Greece, and the Experience of Austerity

• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, A New “Lehman Moment,” or Something Worse? A Scenario of Hitting the Debt Ceiling C. J. POLYCHRONIOU, A Failure by Any Other Name: The International Bailouts of Greece
• JÖRG BIBOW, Lost at Sea: The Euro Needs a Euro Treasury
• ECKHARD HEIN and ACHIM TRUGER, Fiscal Policy and Rebalancing in the Euro Area: A Critique of the German Debt Brake from a Post-Keynesian Perspective
• PAVLINA R. TCHERNEVA, Reorienting Fiscal Policy: A Critical Assessment of Fiscal Fine-Tuning
• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, LAURA CARVALHO, and CHRISTIAN SCHODER, Foreign and Public Deficits in Greece: In Search of Causality

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

Conference Proceedings

• Financial Governance after the Crisis

• WILLIAM GREIDER, “Unusual and Exigent”: How the Fed Can Jump-start the Real Economy
• WILLIAM GREIDER, Debt Relief and the Fed’s Money-creation Power
• ÉRIC TYMOIGNE and L. RANDALL WRAY, Modern Money Theory 101: A Reply to Critics

Program: The Distribution of Income and Wealth

• THOMAS MASTERSON, Quality of Statistical Match and Simulations Used in the Estimation of the Levy Institute Measure of Time and Consumption Poverty (LIMTCP) for Turkey in 2006

Program: Employment Policy and Labor Markets

• SERKAN DEÄžIRMENCI and Ä°PEK Ä°LKKARACAN, Economic Crises and the Added Worker Effect in the Turkish Labor Market

Program: Economic Policy for the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• AURÉLIE CHARLES, Hierarchy of Ideals in Market Interactions: An Application to the Labor Market
• GIOVANNI BERNARDO and EMANUELE CAMPIGLIO, A Simple Model of Income, Aggregate Demand, and the Process of Credit Creation by Private Banks
• ESTEBAN PÉREZ CALDENTEY and MATÍAS VERNENGO, Wage and Profit-led Growth: The Limits to Neo-Kaleckian Models and a Kaldorian Proposal
• EGMONT KAKAROT-HANDTKE, Keynes’s Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster
• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, Uncertainty and Contradiction: An Essay on the Business Cycle

INSTITUTE NEWS

• The Levy-Nagoya Joint Workshop on Income Policy
• New Research Associate

Upcoming Event

• The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar

Save the Dates

• 23rd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference
• The 12th International Post Keynesian Conference

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars
• Recent Levy Institute Publications

Throughout its history, the Levy Economics Institute of Bard College has maintained its commitment to independent thinking and the belief that economics can and should make a profound contribution to improving the human condition. In the two-year period covered by this report, the Institute continued to make significant contributions to the debate on fundamental public policy issues through its conferences, seminars, and publications program. The report also outlines our latest initiatives, including partnerships with other leading public policy institutions and new pilot programs abroad.

This issue of the Summary begins with a new Strategic Analysis for Greece, as well as several publications that address the impacts of austerity in the eurozone and Germany’s complicated role in the creation and ongoing consequences of the euro crisis. Other publications address the global financial crisis, including issues of financial regulatory reform and the lessons to be drawn from the Cypriot deposit tax proposal. Turning to the United States, the issue includes a critical analysis of employment trends as well as papers on the source of US inflation moderation, the current unprecedented level of excess reserves, and the actions taken by the Federal Reserve during and following the crisis. Research on the opportunities for more effective social protection policies and analyses of the gender wage gap and the added worker effect in Georgia are also presented. The Summary concludes with an analysis of the factors driving housing markets and a discussion of the nature and role of shocks in heterodox models.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, and GENNARO ZEZZA, The Greek Economic Crisis and the Experience of Austerity: A Strategic Analysis
• C. J. POLYCHRONIOU, Toward a Post-Keynesian Political Economy for the 21st Century: General Reflections and Considerations on an Era Ripe for Change
• MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, Employment Recovery(?) after the Great Recession
• C. J. POLYCHRONIOU, The New Rome: The EU and the Pillage of the Indebted Countries
• GERARDO FUJII-GAMBERO and ROSARIO CERVANTES-MARTÍNEZ, Indirect Domestic Value Added in Mexico’s Manufacturing Exports, by Origin and Destination Sector
• JÖRG BIBOW, On the Franco-German Euro Contradiction and Ultimate Euro Battleground
• JÖRG BIBOW, Germany and the Euroland Crisis: The Making of a Vulnerable Haven

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• L. RANDALL WRAY, The Lender of Last Resort: A Critical Analysis of the Federal Reserve’s Unprecedented Intervention after 2007
• JAN KREGEL, More Swimming Lessons from the London Whale
• JAN KREGEL, Lessons from the Cypriot Deposit Haircut for EU Deposit Insurance Schemes
• NICOLA MATTHEWS, How the Fed Reanimated Wall Street: The Low and Extended Lending Rates that Revived the Big Banks
• NATHAN PERRY and NATHANIEL CLINE, Wages, Exchange Rates, and the Great Inflation Moderation: A Post-Keynesian View
• SUNANDA SEN, Currency Concerns under Uncertainty: The Case of China
• WALKER F. TODD, The Problem of Excess Reserves, Then and Now

Program: Gender Equality and the Economy

• RANIA ANTONOPOULOS, From Safety Nets to Economic Empowerment: Is There Space to Promote Gender Equality in the Evolution of Social Protection?
• TAMAR KHITARISHVILI, The Economic Crisis of 2008 and the Added Worker Effect in Transition Countries
• TAMAR KHITARISHVILI, Evaluating the Gender Wage Gap in Georgia, 2004–2011

Program: Economic Policy for the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• PHILIP ARESTIS and ANA ROSA GONZÁLEZ, Modeling the Housing Market in OECD Countries
• GREG HANNSGEN, Heterodox Shocks

INSTITUTE NEWS

• New Research Associate

Upcoming Events:

• Conference: Financial Governance after the Crisis, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
• Conference: The Eurozone Crisis, Greece, and the Experience of Austerity, Athens, Greece

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars

The 2013 Minsky Conference addressed both financial reform and poverty in the context of Minsky’s work on financial instability and his proposal for a public job guarantee. Panels focused on the design of a new, more robust, and stable financial architecture; fiscal austerity and the sustainability of the US economic recovery; central bank independence and financial reform; the larger implications of the eurozone debt crisis for the global economic system; improving governance of the social safety net; the institutional shape of the future financial system; strategies for promoting poverty eradication and an inclusive economy; sustainable development and market transformation; time poverty and the gender pay gap; and policy and regulatory challenges for emerging-market economies. The proceedings include the conference program, transcripts of keynote speakers’ remarks, synopses of the panel sessions, and biographies of the participants.

This issue of the Summary features the Macro Modeling Team’s latest Strategic Analysis and a collection of Hyman P. Minsky’s writings on poverty and employment titled Ending Poverty: Jobs, Not Welfare. Also included are publications focused on the Fed’s history, governance, and policies; the social and economic consequences of the ongoing crisis in Greece; the challenges and policy choices faced by the eurozone; a demonstration of the emergence of secondary markets from the flow part of the economy using only structural axioms; gender differences in the long-term benefits of worker migration; the impacts of financialization and uncertainty on the accumulation process; the link between endogenous bank credit and the housing market; a review of the stock-flow consistent modeling literature; analyses of factors affecting US economic growth and business-cycle patterns in Latin America and the Caribbean; a Kaleckian perspective on income redistribution; a discussion of the trends in income inequality and household finance in the United States; and a critical exploration of the opportunities to promote gender equality through social protection initiatives in developing countries.

INSTITUTE RESEARCH

Program: The State of the US and World Economies

• DIMITRI B. PAPADIMITRIOU, GREG HANNSGEN, and MICHALIS NIKIFOROS, Is the Link between Output and Jobs Broken?
• C. J. POLYCRONIOU, The Tragedy of Greece: A Case against Neoliberal Economics, the Domestic Political Elite, and the EU/IMF Duo
• GIORGOS ARGITIS, Greece: Caught Fast in the Troika’s Austerity Trap
• ROBERT J. BARBERA and GERALD HOLTHAM, ECB Worries / European Woes: The Economic Consequences of Parochial Policy

Program: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure

• PHILIP ARESTIS, ANA ROSA GONZÁLEZ, and OSCÁR DEJUÁN, Investment, Financial Markets, and Uncertainty
• THORVALD GRUNG MOE, Marriner S. Eccles and the 1951 Treasury–Federal Reserve Accord: Lessons for Central Bank Independence
• PHILIP ARESTIS and ANA ROSA GONZÁLEZ, Endogenous Bank Credit and Its Link to Housing in OECD Countries
• THOMAS M. HUMPHREY, Arresting Financial Crises: The Fed versus the Classicals
• BARRY Z. CYNAMON and STEVEN M. FAZZARI, Inequality and Household Finance during the Consumer Age
• EUGENIO CAVERZASI, The Missing Macro Link

Program: Gender Equality and the Economy

• RANIA ANTONOPOULOS, Expanding Social Protection in Developing Countries: A Gender Perspective

Program: Immigration, Ethnicity, and Social Structure

• SANJAYA DESILVA, Long-Term Benefits from Temporary Migration: Does the Gender of the Migrant Matter?

Program: Economic Policy for the 21st Century

Explorations in Theory and Empirical Analysis

• EGMONT KAKAROT-HANDTKE, Primary and Secondary Markets
• LEKHA S. CHAKRABORTY, Interest Rate Determination in India: Empirical Evidence on Fiscal Deficit – Interest Rate Linkages and Financial Crowding Out
• EUGENIO CAVERZASI and ANTOINE GODIN, Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages
• ECKHARD HEIN, Finance-dominated Capitalism and Redistribution of Income: A Kaleckian Perspective
• LEKHA S. CHAKRABORTY, YADAWENDRA SINGH, and JANNET FARIDA JACOB, Analyzing Public Expenditure Benefit Incidence in Health Care: Evidence from India
• ESTEBAN PÉREZ CALDENTEY, DANIEL TITELMAN, and PABLO CARVALLO, Weak Expansions: A Distinctive Feature of the Business Cycle in Latin America and the Caribbean
• OLIVIER G. GIOVANNONI, Growth Trends and Cycles in the American Postwar Period, with Implications for Policy
• MICHAEL A. VALENTI and OLIVIER GIOVANNONI, The Economics of Inclusion: Building an Argument for a Shared Society

INSTITUTE NEWS

• New Levy Institute Book
• New Master’s Degree Program in Economic Theory and Policy
• New Research Scholar
• Economic Forum in Athens

Upcoming Events:

• 22nd Annual Hyman P. Minsky Conference: Building a Financial Structure for a More Stable and Equitable Economy
• The 2013 Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar

PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS

• Publications and Presentations by Levy Institute Scholars
• Recent Levy Institute Publications

Organized by the Levy Economics Institute and ECLA of Bard with support from the Ford Foundation, The German Marshall Fund of the United States, and Deutsche Bank AG

Παρασκευή 8 & Σάββατο 9 Μαρτίου 2013

Πολυχώρος «Αθηναΐς»
Καστοριάς 34-36
Βοτανικός |Αθήνα

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