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1657 publications found
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Working Paper No.389
01 September 2003
Do Workers with Low Lifetime Earnings Really Have Low Earnings Every Year?
AbstractWhen it comes to retirement income policy, there is a general perception that workers have full 40-year working careers before retiring. Further, it is generally assumed that workers with low lifetime earnings have low earnings in each year during a normal working career. The basic research question is why do some workers have low lifetime earnings? Is it due to low earnings in every year, or is it due to some years of no earnings combined with years of relatively modest earnings? The key findings from this paper are: (1) most individuals with minimum (and subminimum) wage lifetime average earnings are women, and (2) most of these women have low lifetime average earnings because of fewer years with earnings, rather than low earnings in each year of a 40-year working career.
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Working Paper No.388
01 September 2003
Inflation Targeting
AbstractSince the early 1990s, a number of countries have adopted Inflation Targeting (IT) in an effort to reduce inflation. Most literature has praised IT as a superior framework of monetary policy. We suggest that IT is a major policy prescription closely associated with the New Consensus Macroeconomics (NCM). Focusing mainly on the IT aspects of the NCM, we address and assess the theoretical foundations of IT, and then assess the empirical work on IT, distinguishing between work that utilizes structural macroeconomic models and work based on single-equation techniques. The IT theoretical framework and the available empirical evidence do not appear to support the views of IT proponents.
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Working Paper No.387
01 September 2003
Measures of the Real GDP of US Trading Partners
AbstractThis paper provides the details of the construction of new quarterly measures of the real GDPs of the 36 trading partners that are taken into consideration by the Federal Reserve in its "broad exchange rate" indexes. These new measures have some important advantages. First, they allow the construction of various income aggregates and sub-aggregates, which makes it possible, for example, to match the Federal Reserve’s "broad," "major-currency," and "other important" trading partner effective exchange rates and, more broadly, to discuss the geographical and geopolitical determinants of US trade. Second, they allow the construction of variants of the two different types of measures that are utilized in the literature, namely direct and export-share-weighted sums of trading-partner real GDPs. Finally, given that our new measures of GDP for these countries can be directly compared to each other, they can be of interest for other researchers who need a consistent dataset on a quarterly basis.
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Working Paper No.386
01 September 2003
Household Wealth, Public Consumption, and Economic Well-Being in the United States
Abstract*Preliminary draft. Please do not quote or cite without permission.
Standard official measures of economic well-being are based on money income. The general consensus is that such measures are seriously flawed because they ignore several crucial determinants of well-being. We examine two such determinants–household wealth and public consumption–in the context of the United States. Our findings suggest that the level and distribution of economic well-being is substantially altered when money income is adjusted for wealth or public consumption.
Download Working Paper No. 386 PDF (375.29 KB) -
Policy Notes No.4
20 August 2003
Pushing Germany Off the Cliff Edge
AbstractGermany’s fiscal crisis cannot be attributed to unification per se; it arose as a consequence of ill-guided macroeconomic policies pursued in response to that event. Many structural problems that popped up along the way were mere symptoms of persistent macroeconomic mismanagement and protracted stagnation. Since Germany provided the blueprint for Europe’s stability-oriented macroeconomic policy regime, the risk is that the “German disease” is spreading throughout the regime and, potentially, beyond Europe.
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Public Policy Brief No.73
03 August 2003
Asset and Debt Deflation in the United States
AbstractIn an asset and debt deflation, the process of reducing debt by saving and curtailing spending takes a long time, say authors Philip Arestis and Elias Karakitsos. Current imbalances and poor prospects for spending in the private sector affect the balance sheets of the commercial banks. The downward spiral between the banks and the private sector induces a credit crunch that adversely affects the US economy, which is vulnerable to exogenous shocks and lacks the foundations for a new, long-lasting business cycle.
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Public Policy Brief No.72
02 August 2003
What Is the American Model Really About?
AbstractThe “American Model” serves as a point of reference in discussions of economic policy around the world, especially in Europe. Many claim that the American version of the free market represents an ideal type—it is the highest form of capitalism. Senior Scholar James K. Galbraith argues, however, that the United States has relied heavily on government intervention in housing, health care, pensions, and education. Not only have these programs been largely successful and popular, but they also provide a Keynesian stimulus to spending that helps account for the strength of the US economy. Now that the United States is in a weak, jobless recovery, the key to restoring growth may lie in the kinds of governmental programs that have helped to sustain and stabilize the US economy in the past.
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Working Paper No.384
01 July 2003
Minsky’s Acceleration Channel and the Role of Money
AbstractUsing Minsky (1986), this paper attempts to answer two questions: (1) How does policy affect real and nominal variables? and (2) How should monetary policy be conducted so as to improve the performance of the economy? Minsky asserted that rising interest rates, brought about by contractionary monetary policy, compromised the balance sheets of firms that had financed long-term positions in illiquid assets with short-term borrowing. As interest rates rose, the debt service costs of a project increased relative to the present discounted value of its future revenue streams. This approach accounts for the effects of interest rate policy on the economy, answering the first question. A model based on Minsky’s theory confirms the plausibility of his theory. The model also shows that anti-inflationary policy destabilizes the economy and is therefore counterproductive, providing a partial answer to the second question. A vector autoregression analysis suggests that post-War US data are consistent with Minsky’s theory.
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Working Paper No.383
01 July 2003
Financial Sector Reforms in Developing Countries with Special Reference to Egypt
AbstractFinancial reforms, and financial liberalization in particular, have been at the root of many recent cases of financial and banking crises. In several countries financial reforms allowed real interest rates to reach levels exceeding 20 percent per annum in some cases; in other cases, banking and financial crises led to currency crises. National governments either abandoned attempts at implementing financial liberalization (some countries even reimposed controls) or were forced to intervene by nationalizing banks and guaranteeing deposits. This paper draws on this experience to show that the main cause of these crises is the application of a theoretical framework that is predicated on a number of assumptions that are problematic and based on weak empirical foundations. Consequently, it should be no surprise that the reforms were often unsuccessful and in many cases led to severe financial crises. We will also argue that the case of Egypt is particularly interesting in this regard, since although financial reforms have been enacted, the experience has been rather different: there has been no accompanying financial crisis.
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Working Paper No.385
01 July 2003
Macroeconomic Policies of the Economic Monetary Union
AbstractThis paper presents two issues: first, an effort to decipher the theoretical and policy framework of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU); and second, an argument that the challenges to the EMU’s macroeconomic policies lie in their potential to achieve full employment and low inflation in the euro area. We conclude that the institutional and policy arrangements surrounding the EMU and the euro are neither adequate for dealing with today’s problems of unemployment and inflation nor promising for the future. We propose alternative policies, and institutional arrangements.
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Policy Notes No.3
01 June 2003
Caring for a Large Geriatric Generation
AbstractThe time has more than come to begin planning seriously for the aging of the baby-boom generation. The need for planning goes beyond concerns about the solvency of Social Security and Medicare. Another crisis looms in the form of a huge bill for the care of baby boomers who in their old age will need help dressing, eating, taking medication, and performing other daily tasks. Under the current system, most nursing home care is paid for by Medicaid—a program designed primarily to subsidize the acute care of indigent families. This arrangement diverts health care resources from their intended use, thwarts the development of a long-term-care insurance system, and provides meager resources to heavily burdened providers, forcing them to skimp on care needed by a vulnerable population.
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Working Paper No.382
01 May 2003
The Case for Fiscal Policy
AbstractThis paper reconsiders the case for the use of fiscal policy based on a “functional finance” approach that advocates the use of fiscal policy to secure high levels of demand in the context of private aggregate demand, which would otherwise be too low. This “functional finance” view means that any budget deficit should be seen as a response to the perceived excess of private savings over investment at the desired level of economic activity. The paper outlines the “functional finance” approach and its relationship with fiscal policy. It then considers the three lines of argument that have been advanced against fiscal policy on the grounds of “crowding out.” These lines are based on the response of interest rates, the supply-side equilibrium, and Ricardian equivalence. The paper advances the view that the arguments, which have been deployed against fiscal policy to the effect that it does not raise the level of economic activity, do not apply when a “functional finance” view of fiscal policy is adopted. A section on the intertermporal budget constraint considers whether this constraint rules out budget deficits, and concludes that in general it does not.
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Working Paper No.381
01 May 2003
Reinventing Fiscal Policy
AbstractRecent developments in macroeconomic policy, in terms of both theory and practice, have elevated monetary policy while downgrading fiscal policy. Monetary policy has focused on the setting of interest rates as the key policy instrument, along with the adoption of inflation targets and the use of monetary policy to target inflation. Elsewhere, we have critically examined the significance of this shift, which led us to question the effectiveness of monetary policy. We have also explored the role of fiscal policy and argued that it should be reinstated. This contribution aims to consider further that conclusion. We consider at length fiscal policy within the current “new consensus” theoretical framework. We find the proposition of this thinking, that fiscal policy provides at best a limited role, unconvincing. We examine the possibility of crowding out and the Ricardian Equivalence Theorem. A short review of quantitative estimates of fiscal policy multipliers gives credence to our theoretical conclusions. Our overall conclusion is that, under specified conditions, fiscal policy is a powerful tool for macroeconomic policy.
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Working Paper No.380
01 May 2003
How Long Can the US Consumers Carry the Economy on Their Shoulders?
AbstractThe consumer has been on a tightrope since the bursting of the "new economy" bubble, as losses in equity markets have been partly offset by gains in real estate and fiscal support and mortgage refinancing have partly offset increased consumer cautiousness. The consumer will remain on a tightrope in the near future, but if the economy were to stumble, the fragile consumer might contribute to turning the downturn into a deep and protracted recession. There are two risks to the continuation of consumer resilience. The first arises from the fact that this has been a jobless recovery. The second arises from a growing personal sector imbalance that is fueled by the growing property bubble. Hence, the short-term outlook remains uncertain, but the long-term one is bleak.
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Working Paper No.379
01 May 2003
Is Europe Doomed to Stagnation?
AbstractThis paper challenges the view that external shocks caused Euroland’s 2001 slowdown and subsequent stagnation. Instead, the design of Euroland’s macro policymaking arrangements is found lacking in looking after sufficient domestic demand growth. In the event the ECB has failed on its stabilization role–a rather vital role given that fiscal policy is severely constrained by the Stability and Growth Pact. As a result, Europe is in a precarious situation of stagnation today, and under the current regime there is even a risk of self-reinforcing destabilization. Hence, reforming the regime is urgent. A nominal GDP target to be pursued by fiscal and monetary policies in cooperation would provide Europe with the growth anchor that is currently missing.
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Working Paper No.378
01 May 2003
The Conditions for Sustainable US Recovery
AbstractThe anemic US economic recovery and the threat of a double-dip recession stem from the weakness of investment, due to excess capacity created in the euphoric years of the "new economy" bubble. The current imbalances in the corporate sector (i.e., the all-time-high indebtedness in the face of falling asset prices) are preventing investment from picking up and are laying the foundations for a new, long-lasting expansion. Tax reductions may create a cyclical upturn in the short run, and may promote the anemic recovery, but such stimulus to demand is unsustainable in the long run. The root of the problem is the imbalance in the corporate sector, which will take time for correction.
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Working Paper No.377
01 April 2003
Finance and Development
AbstractThere are many recent worldwide examples of severe financial crises that are linked to periods of financial liberalization. Given the ubiquity of these crises, there is the legitimate question of why governments still pursue financial liberalization policies. Answers to this question range from the recent institutionalization of norms of “acceptable” financial policies and perceived potential gains of attracting private capital inflows to the implied gains arising from the economic logic embedded in the theory underlying financial liberalization. This paper will focus on the latter arguing that financial transformation along the lines proposed by McKinnon-Shaw has engendered widespread banking crises precisely because of the weak foundations of the theory. The financial liberalization theory is critically evaluated on both theoretical and empirical grounds. An alternative theoretical approach is presented that focuses on ways to effect financial and banking transformation that is more consistent with economic development that draws on an institutional-centric perspective.
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Strategic Analysis
01 March 2003
The US Economy
AbstractRight through the boom years prior to 2001, the American economy faced a strategic predicament in that the main engine of growth (credit-financed private spending) was unsustainable, from which it followed that the whole stance of the government’s fiscal policy would have to be radically changed if the New Economy were not to become stagnant. The boom was indeed broken, because private expenditure fell relative to income. The potentially dire effects on the level of activity were mitigated by a transformation in the fiscal policy stance, accompanied by a radical change in attitudes toward budget deficits, which suddenly became respectable. This analysis argues that a new strategic predicament is on the horizon as a result of the exceptionally large and growing balance of payments deficit.
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Working Paper No.375
01 March 2003
US Workers’ Investment Decisions for Participant-directed Defined Contribution Pension Assets
AbstractTwo issues may have a tremendous impact on the adequacy of retirement income for today’s workers: the growth of 401(k) pension plans and the possible privatization of Social Security. Workers are becoming increasingly responsible for the adequacy of their retirement income by determining how their retirement savings are invested. This paper examines the investment choices of workers covered by a defined contribution pension plan with responsibility for investments, specifically incorporating self-selection into DC pension plans. The results suggest that (1) current DC plan participants tend to be more aggressive investors than the general work force would be; (2) workers in certain demographic groups tend to invest their pension assets more conservatively than others; and (3) selection is present but appears to be economically unimportant.
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Working Paper No.374
01 March 2003
The Nature and Role of Monetary Policy When Money Is Endogenous
AbstractThis paper considers the nature and role of monetary policy when money is envisaged as credit money endogenously created within the private sector (by the banking system). Monetary policy is now based in many countries on the setting (or targeting) of a key interest rate, such as the Central Bank discount rate. The amount of money in existence then arises from the interaction of the private sector and the banks, based on the demand to hold money and the willingness of banks to provide loans. Monetary policy has become closely linked with the targeting of the rate of inflation. In this paper we consider whether monetary policy is well-equipped to act as a counter-inflation policy and discuss the more general role of monetary policy in the context of the treatment of money as endogenous. Currently, two schools of thought view money as endogenous. One school has been labeled the “new consensus” and the other the Keynesian endogenous (bank) money approach. Significant differences exist between the two approaches; the most important of these, for the purposes of this paper, is in the way in which the endogeneity of money is viewed. Although monetary policy—essentially interest rate policy—appears to be the same in both schools of thought, it is not. In this paper we investigate the differing roles of monetary policy in these two schools.
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Working Paper No.372
01 February 2003
The Levy Institute Measure of Economic Well-Being
AbstractOur measure of economic well-being is motivated by the conviction that there is substantial room for improving existing official measures of the level and distribution of household economic well-being. The definition of the scope of our measure is guided by an extended concept of income that fundamentally reflects the resources that a household can command for facilitating current consumption or acquiring financial and physical assets. In the contemporary United States, three main institutions–markets, the government, and the household–mediate such command. The measure therefore attempts to integrate the following components: money income, wealth, noncash transfers from the business and government sectors, some forms of public consumption, and household production. We discuss conceptual issues relevant to each of the components and outline an approach for combining them.
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Working Paper No.371
01 February 2003
Credibility of Monetary Policy in Four Accession Countries
AbstractThe aim of this study is to estimate the credibility of monetary policy in four accession countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and the Slovak Republic), based on the Markov regime-switching (MRS) framework. We utilize the theoretical proposition that in the conduct of monetary policy, there is uncertainty in terms of the type of central bank. We measure this uncertainty as a deviation of monetary policy from a target level. We utilize for the target level the differential between the interest rates of the four individual accession countries and a “synthetic” interest rate of 11 EMU member countries.
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Policy Notes No.2
01 February 2003
Reforming the Euro’s Institutional Framework
AbstractThe SGP has been the focus of growing controversy within the eurozone. The ECB continues to argue that reforming the SGP by relaxing its rules would damage the credibility of the euro. The opposite, however, may be closer to reality. Relaxing the rules according to the measures already taken by the European Commission has been inconsequential regarding the euro’s credibility. In our view, many more fiscal policy reforms are needed so that the Eurozone can realize a true economic recovery and enhance the credibility of the euro.
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Working Paper No.373
01 February 2003
Does Trade Promote Gender Wage Equity?
AbstractThis study explores the impact of competition from international trade on the gender wage gap in Taiwan and South Korea between 1980 and 1999. The dynamic implications of Becker’s 1959 theory of discrimination lead one to expect that increased competition from international trade reduces the incentive for employers to discriminate against women. This effect should be more pronounced in concentrated sectors of the economy, where employers can use excess profits to cover the costs of discrimination. Alternatively, wage discrimination may increase with growing trade limiting women’s ability to achieve wage gains. The empirical strategy controls for differences in market structure across industries in order to isolate the effect of competition from international trade. Estimation results are not consistent with Becker’s theory, as greater international competition in concentrated sectors is associated with larger wage gaps between men and women.
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