Publications

1681 publications found

• Working Paper No. 1058 November 20, 2024

  The Origins of the Platonic Approach to Monetary Systems

  Éric Tymoigne
  Abstract

  A monetary approach that combines Chartalism, Nominalism, and Command origins of monetary systems is often deemed to have emerged only recently, while the Aristotelian approach (Commodity, Metallism, and Market origins of monetary systems) is the only one that existed until the end of the eighteenth/early-nineteenth century. In the major studies of the history of monetary […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1058 PDF (1.54 MB)
• Policy Notes November 07, 2024

  Trump Wins While Americans Vote for Progressive Policies

  Pavlina R. Tcherneva
  Abstract

  On November 5, 2024, American voters sent Donald Trump back to the White House. In 2020, he lost his bid for reelection to Joe Biden, after winning in 2016 against Hillary Clinton (but only thanks to the electoral college). This time, however, Trump won the popular vote. All the new energy that surrounded the Harris-Walz campaign […]

  Download Policy Note 2024/3 PDF (182.86 KB)
• Strategic Analysis November 05, 2024

  Economic Challenges of the New U.S. Administration

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  On the eve of the 2024 US presidential election, the authors share their latest macroeconomic projections using the Levy Institute’s tailored stock-flow consistent model and evaluate two alternative policy scenarios, depending upon the next occupant of the White House: (1) a significant increase in import tariffs and decrease in the marginal tax rate, and (2) a substantial increase in government expenditure paired with an increase in the marginal tax rate.

  Download Strategic Analysis November 2024 PDF (673.85 KB)
• Policy Notes November 04, 2024

  Inflation

  Edward Lane
  Abstract

  Edward Lane surveys some of the main potential contributors to the recent period of elevated inflation rates in the US economy—focusing on supply disruptions, inflation-adjusted consumer spending, and consumer spending attributable to price markups—­and outlines prominent proposals being made by the 2024 presidential candidates that may have an impact on inflation.

  Download Policy Note 2024/2 PDF (562.43 KB)
• Policy Notes No. 1 October 11, 2024

  The Boy Who Cried Wolf About Government Debt

  Yeva Nersisyan, and L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  In a New York Times editorial, David Leonhardt recounts Aesop’s apocryphal story about the boy and the wolf, warning that while deficit hawks have so far been wrong, the growing government debt will eventually bite. He reports the economic plans of both presidential candidates would add to the debt that will soon exceed GDP and grow to 130 percent of annual output under a President Harris, or 140 percent with a Trump presidency.

  The story of the boy and the wolf was a fable, although it was within the realm of possibility. The fable of the debt wolf is not. While there are real world wolves—Leonhardt mentions climate catastrophe and autocratic leaders, and the authors would add rising inequality and the concentration of economic and political power in the hands of billionaires—authors Yeva Nersisyan and L. Randall Wray assert, federal debt is not one of them.

  Download Policy Note 2024/1 PDF (368.08 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1057 October 09, 2024

  Rise and Fall of Mexican Super Peso: Heterodox Perspective versus Orthodoxy

  Laura Lisset Montiel-Orozco
  Abstract

  This working paper contrasts the neo-Keynesian and post-Keynesian theories of monetary policy for an open economy, highlighting the irrelevance of the orthodox theory and the explanatory capacity of heterodoxy for an emerging economy such as Mexico. It focuses on the role of the central bank and the case of the Mexican currency during the economic […]

  Download PDF (1.81 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1056 October 07, 2024

  Federal Tax Transfers and Demographic Transition: Balancing Equity and Efficiency

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, and Yadawendra Singh
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of demographic transition in India, the study highlights the necessity of integrating the elderly population as a critical factor in formula-based intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The demographic transition, characterized by an increasing elderly population, imposes unique fiscal challenges on states, necessitating a revision of transfer formulas to ensure equitable and efficient resource distribution. […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1056 PDF (410.83 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1055 September 18, 2024

  The Relation Between Budget Deficits and Growth: Complicated but Clear

  L. Randall Wray, and Eric Lin
  Abstract

  This paper looks at the relationship between government budget deficits and the growth rate of GDP. While orthodox economic theory offers several reasons to believe that growing deficits might be associated with slower growth, and would ultimately be unsustainable, Keynesians assert that deficits could stimulate growth—at least in the short run—implying the relation between deficits […]

  Download PDF (4.23 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1054 June 28, 2024

  Gender-Responsive Public Financial Management: The Indian Chronology of Gender Budgeting

  Lekha S. Chakraborty
  Abstract

  Gender budgeting is a public financial management (PFM) tool, used to ensure accountability mechanisms. The analysis of “process” indicators of gender-responsive PFM (GRPFM) reveals that India has been successful in integrating a gender lens within the budget cycle, including in the financial planning and allocation, and in effective implementation. However, a legally mandated GRPFM would […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1054 PDF (523.83 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1053 June 07, 2024

  Foreign Deficit and Economic Policy: The Case of Mexico

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  The article analyzes Mexico under globalization, particularly on the free mobility of capital. It argues that globalization has detrimentally impacted the productive and external sectors, causing the economy to become excessively reliant on volatile capital inflows from abroad. The Mexican government—instead of undoing the structural problems that lead to external deficits—implements policies that resolve the […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1053 PDF (3.66 MB)
• Working Paper No. 1052 June 05, 2024

  Exchange-Rate Stability Causes Deterioration of the Productive Sphere and Destabilizes Developing Economies

  Arturo Huerta G.
  Abstract

  For Matías Vernengo and Esteban Pérez Caldentey (2020), the MMT literature overemphasizes the choice of the exchange rate regime and the relevance of a flexible exchange rate regime, as well as the ultimate effect of that choice upon the policy space. In addition, they argue that the role of capital flows is underexplored, and that […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1052 PDF (346.76 KB)
• Strategic Analysis June 04, 2024

  U.S. Economic Outlook: Prospects for 2024 and Beyond

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Institute President Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Research Scholar Giuliano T. Yajima, and Senior Scholar Gennaro Zezza discuss the rapid recovery of the US economy in the post-pandemic period. They find that robust consumption and investment and a relaxation of fiscal policy were the key drivers of accelerated GDP growth—however, the signs that the […]

  Download Strategic Analysis, June 2024 PDF (981.17 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1051 May 10, 2024

  Euro Interest Rate Swap Yields: Some ARDL Models

  Tanweer Akram, and Khawaja Mamun
  Abstract

  This paper examines the dynamics of euro-denominated (EUR) long-term interest rate swap yields. It shows that the short-term interest rate has an economically and statistically significant effect on EUR swap yields of different maturity tenors, after controlling for various key macroeconomic variables. It presents several autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models of the dynamics of EUR […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1051 PDF (551.75 KB)
• One-Pager No. 72 May 10, 2024

  If Government Can Print Money, Why Does It Borrow?

  L. Randall Wray
  Abstract

  Recently, the neglected question of why the US government borrows, given that it can print money, has arisen in the context of discussions surrounding a new documentary, Finding the Money. As L. Randall Wray observes in this one-pager, Modern Money Theory has been providing answers to this question for some time; and, he argues, it is a topic that mainstream economists are ill-equipped to address, since very few concern themselves with the monetary operations that underlie the question of why a currency-issuing government issues debt.

• Working Paper No. 1050 May 07, 2024

  Macroeconomic Effects of a Government Overdraft on Its Central Bank Account

  Tarron Khemraj
  Abstract

  The Guyana government, from 2015 to 2021, accumulated a large overdraft on its central bank account. It owed this overdraft to a binding debt ceiling limit and fractious political environment that prevented an increase in the ceiling, allowing for the auctioning of Treasury bills to create the liquidity reflux necessary to refill the account. This […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1050 PDF (810.16 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1049 May 07, 2024

  Deindustrialization from the Center Perspective: US Trade and Manufacturing in the Last Two Decades

  Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and George Soklis
  Abstract

  We argue that the US trade and industry sector has experienced several unsustainable sectoral processes, including (i) a fall in the trade balance in machinery and equipment and high-tech (HT) industries, (ii) a rise in import multipliers in machinery and equipment and HT industries, (iii) a fall in the manufacturing share of GDP in machinery […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1049 PDF (533.85 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1048 April 19, 2024

  An Empirical Analysis of Swedish Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Mahima Yadav
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of Swedish government bond (SGB) yields. It examines whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on long-term SGB yields, after controlling for other macroeconomic and financial variables, such as consumer price inflation, the growth of industrial production, the stock price index, the exchange rate of the Swedish […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1048 PDF (953.69 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1047 April 08, 2024

  “Just Transition” in India and Fiscal Stance: Analyzing the Tax Buoyancy of the Extractive Sector

  Lekha S. Chakraborty, and Emmanuel Thomas
  Abstract

  Against the backdrop of fiscal transition concomitant to energy transition policies with climate change commitments, revenue from the extractive sector needs a recalibration in the subnational fiscal space. Extractive tax is the payment due to the government in exchange for the right to extract the mineral substance. Extractive tax has been fixed and paid in […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1047 PDF (457.86 KB)
• Research Project Report March 19, 2024

  Integrating Nonmarket Consumption into the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey

  Ajit Zacharias, Fernando Rios-Avila, Nancy Folbre, and Thomas Masterson
  Abstract

  In spring 2021, under the direction and encouragement of Commissioner William Beach, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) kicked off a major initiative—to produce a measure of consumption to supplement the release of consumer expenditures. The production of such a measure would fill a data gap regarding household economic well-being. For years BLS staff, […]

• Policy Notes March 14, 2024

  European Job Guarantee

  Rania Antonopoulos
  Abstract

  Despite the gradual economic recovery and positive policy responses during the COVID-19 pandemic, the problem of long-term unemployment continues to plague millions in Europe. To effectively address this and other overlapping crises in Europe, we need radical changes, according to Senior Scholar Rania Antonopoulos; and in this context, the job guarantee policy has been gaining […]

  Download Policy Note 2024/4 PDF (293.42 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1046 March 07, 2024

  The Aggregate Production Function and Solow’s “Three Denials”

  Jesus Felipe, and John McCombie
  Abstract

  This paper offers a retrospective view of the key pillar of Solow’s neoclassical growth model, namely the aggregate production function. We review how this tool came to life and how it has survived until today, despite three criticisms that undermined its raison d’être. They are the Cambridge Capital Theory Controversies, the Aggregation Problem, and the […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1046 PDF (544.14 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1045 March 07, 2024

  Social Security and Gender Inequality

  Liudmila Malyshava, and B. Oak McCoy
  Abstract

  This inquiry examines the role of federal policy in gender inequality using the principles of institutional adjustment (Foster 1981; Bush 1987) in the context of the Veblenian dichotomy of habit formation. Specifically, the authors assert that Social Security, though exclusive at its inception in 1935, has undergone significant institutional adjustment. Today, Social Security plays a […]

  Download Working Paper No. 1045 PDF (251.47 KB)
• Working Paper No. 1044 February 23, 2024

  Empirical Models of Chinese Government Bond Yields

  Tanweer Akram, and Shahida Pervin
  Abstract

  This paper econometrically models the dynamics of long-term Chinese government bond (CGB) yields based on key macroeconomic and financial variables. It deploys autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) models to examine whether the short-term interest rate has a decisive influence on the long-term CGB yield, after controlling for various macroeconomic and financial variables, such as inflation or […]

  Download PDF (1.72 MB)
• Strategic Analysis February 15, 2024

  Greece: Time to Reduce the Dependency on Imports

  Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano Toshiro Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza
  Abstract

  In this report, Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, Nikolaos Rodousakis, Giuliano T. Yajima, and Gennaro Zezza investigate the determinants of the recent performance of the Greek economy. Despite geopolitical instability from the continuing Ukraine-Russia and Israel-Gaza wars and higher-than-expected inflation rates, the country has managed to register the highest growth rates among eurozone member-states in 2021 and […]

  Download PDF (3.38 MB)