Publications

1657 publications found

• Working Paper No.25 07 June 1989

  Kaleckianism vs. “New” Keynesianism

  Tracy Mott
  Abstract

  The economics of Kalecki and of the New Keynesianism exhibit remarkable parallels. The major doctrine they have in common is that of business net worth, or equity, as the major determinant of business expansion. The New Keynesians arrive at their understanding of this point by reasoning from rational behavior in the face of informational imperfections. Kalecki’s view derives from a perspective on the capitalist system coming ultimately from Marx which starts with asking how the economic system produces and reproduces itself. The New Keynesians develop arguments that make Kaleckian ideas intelligible to economists educated in the neoclassical tradition. In their eyes perhaps Kalecki was a forerunner of their views with a somewhat ad hoc presentation of the story.

  Why Kalecki, starting from Marx, rather than Keynes himself, should present “Keynesian” economics in ways that seemingly “anticipate” the New Keynesians is already suggestive. When we look closer, we see that this is no accident but a consequence of starting from methodological foundations concerned with the accumulation and reproduction of wealth. In fact it is the New Keynesians who have not seen fully the foundations and implications of their views.

  Greenwald and Stiglitz (1987, 1988c) imply that their work is an alternative to neoclassical ways of thinking. One should be clear, though, about what one means by the term “neoclassical.” If it means economics based on rational maximizing behavior, then the New Keynesian theory is neoclassical. But if rational maximizing behavior just means that everyone does the best he or she can with what he or she has, then we are all neoclassicals. Greenwald and Stiglitz seem rather to identify non-neoclassical analysis with market imperfections. From the Marxian-Kaleckian perspective,26 however, these are not imperfections. The economy is not seen as the equivalent of a “swap meet,” in which the economic problem is the allocation of actual and potential resources among competing uses given exogenous preferences and the initial distribution of endowments, so that any interference with this process of allocation is an “imperfection.” In a swap meet participants can be indifferent to sources of finance and preservation of the value of their capital and labor. Once one is dependent for one’s livelihood on the swaps, though, these matters do become of concern. Trading also then becomes a vehicle for the extension of the division of labor and the growth of the wealth of nations. The accumulation and reproduction of capital which thus occurs produces and reproduces wealth, and it also creates barriers to the production of wealth which do not permit individual rationality to exploit all the gains from trade. The New Keynesian theory is both dependent upon and pointing the way to this perspective on the economy.

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• Working Paper No.24 06 June 1989

  Financial Instability

  Dorene L. Isenberg
  Abstract

  This study is a continuation of the empirical research on the impacts of debt; it argues that debt-usage is not neutral and that the currency of its cost is bankruptcy. A financially fragile economy is feared because of its potential harm. In the public sector the large and lingering deficit is not a problem in and of itself. It is only when future scenarios of budget item trade-offs or recession-fighting fiscal policy options are conjured up that the problem emerges. The same is true for the corporate debt. As long as the debt is incurred in an expanding economy, there is no economic problem. It is only when a contraction ensues that the problem emerges. The problem is encapsulated in bankruptcy and the costs that accompany it. Some of these costs are private and can be born by the managers and owners. However, in a recession this burden grows and spreads beyond the private; the costs become socialized.

  While previous researchers have indicated the extent of consumer and producer indebtedness, this study uses discriminant analysis to simulate the impact of a recession on the manufacturing sector so that a measure of our current financial vulnerability is produced. In the first section background material on the current financial structure of the United States is reviewed. The second section delineates the social costs of bankruptcy. The construction and characteristics of the discriminant function are specified in the third section. The fourth section details the simulation and its results.

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• Working Paper No.23 10 May 1989

  Viability and Equilibrium

  Jean Cartelier
  Abstract

  More than fifty years after the publication of Keynes’ General Theory and of the review article by Hicks, ISLM remains the basic model for teaching Keynesian macroeconomics. Some Keynesians have rightly insisted on the inadequacies of ISLM in capturing Keynes’ thought but have not converted the profession to their views. The same fate may befall this paper whose aim is to suggest an alternative class-room model in the Keynesian and Kaleckian tradition. Nevertheless, in accordance with Orange’s lucid motto,"il n’est pas necessaire d’esperer pour entreprendre ni de reussir pour perseverer".

  The main thesis is that the concept of static equilibrium, central to ISLM, is not adequate to express the most fundamental aspect of the Keynesian revolution. The first section of the paper is devoted to a defense of the more general concept of viability. Static equilibrium will appear as but one particular example of this larger notion.

  A very simple model is presented in the second section. Its distinctive feature, aside from its inclusion of the ISLM equations, is to make a clear distinction between the macroeconomic relations exhibiting the consequences of the decisions of the agents on the one hand and the principles according to which these decisions are taken and carried out on the other. The concept of static equilibrium, by contrast is founded on the confusion of the two: a necessary condition for individual actions to be effective is their mutual compatibility.

  The third section deals very briefly with the implications of the model for the analysis of macroeconomic policy.

• Working Paper No.22 08 May 1989

  Debt and Macro Stability

  Marc Jarsulic
  Abstract

  There has been much recent interest in the problem of financial instability in the macro economy. Some researchers have looked for cyclical and secular co-movements between debt accumulation, financial crises, and problems in the real economy. Others have tried to rationalize, in formal models the apparent connections between finance, changes in expectations, and macro instability. Two different points of view are embodied in this work. One, deriving from the work of Minsky, emphasizes the importance of ignorance and psychology. Firms are seen as financing accumulation on the basis of unverifiable expectations, accumulating debt burdens in the process. When the debt burdens are large enough, the economy becomes vulnerable to downward revisions of expectations. Such revisions reduce effective demand and stimulate financial crises. A second view emphasizes a structural determinant, of instability—declining profitability. Problems with profits are viewed as a major cause of debt burdens, and the source of potential financial crisis.

  What follows is an attempt to synthesize these two viewpoints in a manageable analytical framework. To set the stage, we begin with a brief review of Minsky’s ideas, which have to this point received the greater attention. This is followed by a discussion of the structuralist view and some of the key supporting empirical evidence. Next a Keynes-Kalecki model of growth with debt is constructed. It suggests that in economies where debt finances accumulation, stable and unstable configurations of economic variables coexist simultaneously. The proximity of these regions is shown to depend on expectational and distributional factors. The model therefore introduces a way to characterize financial fragility in terms of stability theory, and shows how structuralist and Minskian ideas complement each other.

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• Working Paper No.21 10 April 1989

  The Structure of Class Conflict in a Kaleckian-Keynesian Model

  Tracy Mott
  Abstract

  This paper seeks to explore this issue of the existence and nature of class conflict within a picture of the economy that could be called Kaleckian-Keynesian. Though the particular model we will use owes somewhat more to Kalecki than Keynes, it hopefully does not violate the spirit of Keynes very much, and in fact it relies rather heavily on Keynes’s appreciation of the rentier aspect of capitalism, a matter not discussed much by Kalecki. In addition, combining the ideas of Kalecki and Keynes we will find leads us to insights beyond what each saw by himself.

• Working Paper No.20 09 April 1989

  Profits, Cycles, and Chaos

  Marc Jarsulic
  Abstract

  Some time ago, Goodwin (1967) offered an elegant and influential model to represent part of Marx’s thinking on business cycles. In that model he was able to show how the interaction of the reserve army of labor and the process of capital accumulation could produce self-sustaining oscillatory behavior. Increases in the real wage cause decreases in the rate of growth of the capital stock, since all wages are consumed and all profits invested. The declining rate of accumulation in turn causes a decline in the employment rate, which eventually causes the wage rate to decline. The eventual expansion in the growth rate of the capital stock begins the process over again. This behavior was described by fitting a model of one good economy into the Lotka-Volterra equations, the solution to which is well known. While it has proved extremely fruitful, this model also has some well-known limitations. It is, first of all, a center, so that no limit cycle produced by the model is stable. Second, it takes a rather asocial approach to the creation of the labor force, assuming that it is governed exclusively by an exogenously given rate of population growth. Also, the model assumes that all technical change occurs at a constant, autonomously given rate, and allows for no induced components.

  In what follows, some minor alterations to the Goodwin model are shown to introduce interesting new behavior. By making technical change depend on economic and social phenomena, and by assuming that the labor force grows at least in part in response to social phenomena, it is easy to show that the model will now generate stable limit cycles. When the model is changed still further, to allow for systematic periodic influences—such as those an economy might experience as a result of seasonal changes in labor force participation or productivity—somewhat more dramatic dynamic behavior follows. Under certain conditions, the resulting behavior is more business cycle–like because it is irregular. But at the same time, the existence chaos implies difficulties for empirical "deseasonalization" of data.

  The possibility of chaos introduces some questions for the study of business cycles. One is whether it is possible to discriminate between economic phenomena that are induced by chaos-generating nonlinearities and those that are introduced by stochastic shocks to some underlying nonlinear system. The model is used to illustrate this problem, and to show how an existing technique for testing for chaos—the calculation of Lyapunov exponents—is able to handle it.

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• Working Paper No.19 10 March 1989

  A Dynamic Approach to the Theory of Effective Demand

  Anwar M. Shaikh
  Abstract

  This paper attempts to resituate the theory of effective demand within a dynamic nonequilibrium context. Existing theories of effective demand, which derive from the works of Keynes and Kalecki, are generally posed in static equilibrium terms. That is to say, they serve to define a given level of output which corresponds to the equilibrium point between aggregate demand and supply. We propose to generalize this analysis in three ways. First, we will extend the analysis to encompass a dynamic (i.e. moving) short run path of output, rather than a merely static level. Second, we will show that this dynamic short run path need not imply an equilibrium analysis, since it can arise from either stochastically sustained cycles or deterministic limit cycles. And third, we will prove that the preceding generalization of the theory of effective demand will allow us to solve a long standing problem in growth theory: namely, the puzzle surrounding the apparently intractable instability of warranted growth.

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• Working Paper No.18 08 March 1989

  Profitability and the Time-varying Liquidity Premium in the Term Structure of Interest Rates

  Tracy Mott and David Zen
  Abstract

  There have been numerous empirical studies of the term structure. Broadly, the evidence may be said to be consistent with some influence from expectations plus the existence of a liquidity premium. Long rates or the spread between long and short rates have seemed to be systematically related to expectations of future rates, though the expectations embodied in long rates or the spread are biased upwards as the liquidity preference theory would predict. The degree of influence of expectations and the behavior of the liquidity premium, however, have remained matters of controversy. In several recent studies (e.g., Robert Shillert 1979; Shiller, John Campbell, and Kermit Schoenholtz, 1983; David Jones and Vance Roley, 1983; Mankiw and Summers, 1984; and Mankiw, 1986) the expectations theory has performed poorly, even allowing for the existence of a constant liquidity premium, in attempts to test the joint hypothesis of rational expectations and the expectations theory. Shiller, Campbell, and Schoenholtz and Mankiw and Summers, among others, have suggested renewing the search for the determinants of a time-varying liquidity premium as a possibility for explaining what is going on but have had little success themselves in finding such..

• Working Paper No.17 01 February 1989

  Social Progress after the Age of Progressivism

  David Kettler and Volker Meja
  Abstract

  This essay is about trade unions, an institution that arose to play an important part in relation to the social progress characterizing much of the present century and that served as an important reference point for several varieties of normative progressivism. The past two decades of social progress in the most prosperous established nations appear to be rendering the institution obsolete. The objective of the paper is to reject all progressivist interpretations of this trend, neither condemning the development as a regressive obstacle to progress nor welcoming it as a normal part of the developmental process. The aim is to inquire anew into the historical project of trade unions and the interplay between this project and the processes of social progress, past and prospective. The analytical thesis is that the institution has been multi-dimensional, serving in one of its dimensions as an important political response to social progress. The normative problem is whether the unions’ political contribution to a socially conscious political democratization can be revived or transferred, when the unions’ constitutive adaptations to past stages of social progress appear to be failing so badly in the present.

   

• Working Paper No.16 10 January 1989

  Unionization and Labour Regimes

  Christopher Huxley, David Kettler and James Struthers
  Abstract

  No further information available.

• Working Paper No.15 01 January 1989

  The Financially Fragile Firm

  Dorene L. Isenberg
  Abstract

  This paper is an empirical investigation of Minsky’s hypothesis in the U.S. consumer durables sector during the 1920s. The first section of the paper briefly describes Minsky’s financial fragility hypothesis, while the second sketches a brief economic historical background of the 1920s in the U.S. The third section introduces the methodology utilized and the fourth presents the results of the analysis. In the conclusion the findings and their implications are summarized.

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• Working Paper No.14 01 December 1988

  Classical and Neoclassical Elements in Industrial Organization

  Mark Glick and Eduardo M. Ochoa
  Abstract

  This article analyzes the theoretical foundations of industrial organization studies of monopolistic and competitive pricing. Our analysis will focus on the central debates of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s that formed the theoretical basis of the modern industrial organization paradigm. We will argue that despite claims to the contrary, and often unknowingly, the majority of these studies adopted a mixture of both classical and neoclassical elements. We will try to show that the lack of a firm theoretical grounding has led to three types of confusion in this literature. First, there is a lack of clarity concerning what measure of profitability should be equalized in competitive equilibrium. A debate has developed concerning whether the rate of profit, total profit, or the profit margin, is the appropriate variable to study. Second, the industrial organization approach to monopoly and competition has never adequately resolved over what period of time profit-rate differentials must be studied. In this regard, Yale Brozen’s criticism of the short-run nature of early profit rate–market structure studies is discussed. Third, we argue that from a classical point of view, firm studies of profitability that draw conclusions for industry phenomena have been misguided. Harold Demsetz’s work on concentration and efficiency will be referred to as an illustration. We conclude by questioning the practicability of a purely neoclassical grounding for industrial economists, since they have been impelled to abandon this approach in their investigation of reality.

• Working Paper No.13 10 November 1988

  The Effects of Worker Participation, Employee Ownership, and Profit Sharing on Economic Performance

  Derek C. Jones and Jeffrey Pliskin
  Abstract

  For alternative sharing arrangements we review theory on the economic effects on employment, productivity, investment, income and wealth distribution, and life cycle and survival. We find that predictions are often ambiguous and that sometimes the nature and size of the specific effect is determined in part by the particular institutional arrangements. Next recent econometric work is studied. We review studies using aggregate and industry level time series data for Japan as well as studies that use enterprise and establishment level data for firms in North America and Western Europe. Worker participation, employee share ownership and profit sharing schemes are often found to affect that studies obtained conflicting results. However, available evidence is strongly suggestive that for employee ownership schemes to have a strong positive impact they need to be accompanied by provision for worker participation in decision making.

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• Working Paper No.12 01 November 1988

  The Real Wage and the Marginal Product of Labor

  Tracy Mott
  Abstract

  As I see it, the errors in Keynes’s analysis in chapter 2 of the General Theorv were his acceptance of diminishing returns in the short-period relation between output and labor employed, and of perfect competition in the product market. These "errors," however, are easily corrected and do not alter Keynes’s basic and correct ideas—that employment is determined by aggregate demand, that real wages are determined by aggregate demand given the degree of competition and the level of capital utilization and other determinants of the productivity of labor, and that the supply of labor, at least below full employment, has no effect on either employment or real wages.

  I would like to reiterate that the formulation we have established here is "Ricardian" rather than neoclassical. Basically, all we have said is that the mark-up represents a deduction from the product of labor, and that since the mark-up is certainly not procyclical and productivity probably is procyclical, as the "margin" of production is extended, real wages rise. Sraffa (1960, pp. v-vi) has argued that such a use of the term "marginal" is spurious, since the true application of the term "requires attention to be focused on change," while this use of the term, as in Ricardo’s discussion of the margin of cultivation, need only be a matter of differences in quality among existing productive facilities rather than changes in scale or in input proportions. We have come a long way from the neoclassical idea of a marginal product of labor, but this should not make either us or Keynes embarrassed about Chapter Two of the General Theory, one of the most interesting and important chapters in the book.

  Lawlor, Darity, and Horn (1987) noted that Sraffa (1926) had pointed out that the determination of prices and quantities by the interaction of supply and demand necessitates an independence between supply and demand that does not obtain except under very restrictive conditions. Sraffa (1960) extends this argument by showing that scarcity, as in scarce factors of production, is not necessary to determine value and in fact cannot determine value independently of income distribution. Keynes’s and Kalecki’s work shows that when we take effective demand into account, output is determined solely by demand and distribution by the conditions of competition. Kalecki’s and Keynes’s work can thus be taken as an Hegelian "supersession" of classical and neoclassical economics when we realize that workers cannot bargain in terms of a real wage and that output not saleable will soon no longer be produced.

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• Working Paper No.11 09 October 1988

  Ranking Urban Areas

  Dimitrios A. Giannias
  Abstract

  Rankings of urban areas provide useful information to planning recreational or tourism activities, making housing-locational decisions, and designing policies to attract industries. This paper illustrates how the structural approach to hedonic equilibrium models can be used to derive a quality of life based ranking of urban areas.

• Working Paper No.10 02 October 1988

  Long-Term Trends in Profitability

  Gerard Dumenil, Mark Glick and Dominique Levy
  Abstract

  It is accepted doctrine among economists that the rate of profit in the United States has declined since the mid-1960s. What is less a matter of agreement is whether this decline represents a stage in a long-term secular decline. In a recent article, Dumenil, Glick, and Rangel (1987) reviewed the existing empirical evidence on this topic and found that, independent of variation in the definition of the rate of profit, any series extending back to 1929 reveals a stable or increasing trend. Although two periods of serious decline exist—after World War I and in the late 1950s—they are connected by a "leap forward" during World War II. In fact, in any measure that does not subtract taxes from profit, World War II coincides with a considerable restoration of the rate of profit.

  The purpose of the present study is to investigate more carefully this leap forward in profitability. In the first part we will fully explore the statistical characteristics of the leap forward. Specifically, we will compare the leap forward with earlier and future fluctuations and trends in profitability (an effort will be made, in spite of the deficiencies of the data, to cover a period of 120 years). We will further determine whether the leap forward is invariant to the choice of the definition of the rate of profit or whether it can be explained by a specific choice of statistical categories. The second part will consider whether the leap forward is the expression of changes in the relative price of fixed capital or a variation in the workweek of capital. The final part will explore whether the leap occurred in specific industries or whether it was a general feature of the economy. In the conclusion, we will discuss a number of further alternative explanations.

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• Working Paper No.9 02 October 1988

  Consumer Benefit from Air Quality Improvements

  Dimitrios A. Giannias
  Abstract

  This paper applies a simultaneous equations estimation technique to estimate a hedonic equilibrium model. The estimation results are used to compute consumer benefit from air quality improvements.

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• Working Paper No.8 10 September 1988

  The Effects of Alternative Sharing Arrangements on Employment

  Derek C. Jones and Jeffrey Pliskin
  Abstract

  A sample of British firms with diverse sharing arrangements is used to investigate the effects of profit sharing on employment levels. Employment effects are sometimes significant but depend upon the measure of profit sharing, how the dynamics are modeled, and whether measures of employee participation in decision making are included in the estimating equation. Using a continuous measure of profit sharing, employment effects, which typically range from -6% to 6% are much more modest than those obtained by some other researchers. Most findings are not dramatically affected by estimating for separate time periods, individual industries or separately for larger firms.

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• Working Paper No.7 09 September 1988

  Why Is the Rate of Profit Still Falling?

  Thomas R. Michl
  Abstract

  This paper elaborates a fixed-coefficient, capital, labor, non-raw material intermediates, raw materials production model; estimates the wage share-profit rate frontier associated with it for U.S. manufacturing from 1949 to 1986; and suggests the following explanation of declining profitability. From 1949 to 1970, a rising wage share drove the manufacturing industries up along the wage-profit frontier. Declines in relative raw material prices shifted the frontier out in this period. From 1970 to 1986, raw material prices shocks shifted the frontier in, but as raw material prices declined in the 1980s, the failure of either the wage share or the rate of profit to recover to their previous levels suggests that a secular decline in the output-capital ratio has rotated the frontier inwards. This finding has significance for the tneory of technical change.

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• Working Paper No.6 10 August 1988

  A Structural Approach to Hedonic Equilibrium Models

  Dimitrios A. Giannias
  Abstract

  This paper presents a quality theory for differentiated products. Analytical solutions for the equilibrium demand for quality and the equilibrium price equation are computed. The model is estimated and the willingness to pay for improvements in the air quality of Houston is computed. The empirical results show that the standard n on-structural approach would seriously underestimate benefits for non-marginal and small changes in air quality.

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• Working Paper No.5 09 August 1988

  The Finance Constraint Theory of Money

  Meir Kohn
  Abstract

  The theory of money that emerged from the Keynesian Revolution is coming increasingly into question, and a variety of new theories are being put forward as alternatives. The most promising is one I will call the finance constraint theory. This paper is a progress report on its development. It is particularly fitting that this progress report appear in afestschrift for S.C. Tsiang, as he has been one of the most cogent critics of the conventional theory and a major architect of the finance constraint alternative.

  The issues a theory of money should address may be divided into three broad areas: (1) What is money and how is it special (2) What is the connection between money and its various "prices" (the general price level, interest rates, and exchange rates)? (3) What is the role of money in economic fluctuations? After some introductory material, each of these areas will be taken up in turn.

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• Working Paper No.4 10 July 1988

  Housing Quality Differentials in Urban Areas

  Dimitrios A. Giannias
  Abstract

  This paper applies an equilibrium quality theory for differentiated products to estimate the willingness to pay for improvements in the air quality of Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Houston, and Indianapolis. The empirical results show (i) that the structural approach and the standard nonstructural approach give very different benefit figures even for small improvements in air quality, and (ii) that a uniform improvement in air quality implies significant distributional effects.

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• Working Paper No.3 10 March 1988

  Competing Micro Economic Theories of Industrial Profits

  Mark Glick and Eduardo M. Ochoa
  Abstract

  Contrary to the impression given by most textbooks, microeconomics is not a homogeneous discipline. At least two major alternative theories exist which account for the long-run behavior of industrial prices and the between economic sectors in ways which are distinct from standard neoclassical explanations. Both Post Keynesian and Classical (Marxian/NeoRicardian) approaches to economics have developed a growing literature on microfoundations in recent years (see, e.g. Eichner, 1985; Dumenil & Levy, 1985).

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• Working Paper No.2 09 March 1988

  The Firm and Its Profits

  Nina Shapiro
  Abstract

  What sets the firm apart from other producers is the commercial nature of its operations. The firm produces for the market and only for the market. It produces goods and buys them not in order to consume them but in order to sell them or their products. While economic agents other than the firm sell commodities, the sale of commodities is not the end of their exchange transactions. They "sell in order to buy" instead of "buying in order to sell." Workers engage in exchange to acquire "necessities," landlords do so to get "luxuries," and "factor" owners exchange their goods to get ones that have a higher utility than their endowments.

  Exchanging for the purpose of selling is exchanging for the purpose of money making. Money acquisition, although necessary for the purchase of goods, is not the same as goods acquisition. Instead of giving one goods, money gives one the power of purchasing them, a title to a certain portion of society’s wealth. In striving for profit, the firm strives to extend its claim over the wealth of nations. Firms want not to consume this wealth but to own it; to acquire it, not use it. The firm’s profit end is the end of wealth acquisition.

  Firms differ from other economic agents not only in the way they relate to the wealth of nations but also in the way they obtain it. Others get a part of this wealth by contributing to its production. Their incomes are "earned," the market values ("measures") of productive services. Profit, in contrast, while a component of price, is not itself a price, or the market worth of any good or service; it is the "unearned" component of the nation’s income and is viewed as such in all traditions of economic thought.

  Insofar as profit is not a "reward," profit-seeking activities are not necessary for production. But if they are not necessary for production, if "entrepeneurship" is not one of production’s "factors," then what are they necessary for? What is the firm’s role in the economy? Does what it does with its profits, or how it makes them, justify their receipt? How does the accumulation of wealth further the economic ends of society and enhance the wealth of nations?

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